Bitcoin: The monthly MACD turns pink, a rare signal
The crypto market is going through a period of intense compression, and technical analysts have their eyes glued to a specific indicator. On the Bitcoin monthly chart, the MACD has just made a shift that few investors usually monitor: the histogram has flipped from deep red to light pink. For Merlijn The Trader, an analyst followed by hundreds of thousands of traders on X, this color change is not just cosmetic. It is a momentum reversal signal that has occurred exactly three times in Bitcoin’s history: in 2015, 2019, and 2023. Following each occurrence, a major bull run ensued without exception.
The MACD indicator measures the convergence and divergence of two exponential moving averages. On the monthly timeframe, each signal carries considerable weight: a single candle represents 30 days of price action. The shift from red to pink indicates that selling pressure is exhausting without buyers having taken full control just yet. It is the intermediate phase, where the market catches its breath before a potential directional resumption.
What Merlijn The Trader’s technical analysis highlights is the consistency of the pattern across four cycles. Each time, Bitcoin was trading inside a long-term compression triangle, characterized by lower highs and a strongly held support. The MACD reversal to pink preceded the bullish breakout from the triangle, followed by an explosion to a new ATH. In 2023, BTC was still trading below $20,000 when this signal flashed. It then surged past $100,000 in 2025, confirming the historical predictive value of this setup.
The cycle bottom might not have been reached yet
However, the analyst tempers short-term enthusiasm. His scenario does not call for an immediate rally. According to Merlijn The Trader, the current setup faithfully replicates previous cycles, and those all included a severe final retracement before the real takeoff. This final move would serve to liquidate overleveraged positions and establish a solid floor, forming the technical foundation for the next bull cycle.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,000, in a technical compression zone that the analyst describes as a “springboard.” A correction to lower levels cannot be ruled out before the triangular structure resolves to the upside. Traders accustomed to support and resistance trading will recognize this type of setup: it is precisely in these zones of maximum compression that the most asymmetric entries present themselves, but also the most costly traps for those who anticipate the move too early. A Fibonacci retracement to the 0.618 and 0.786 levels remains something to watch closely.
Spot ETFs confirm institutional interest
This technical signal arrives in a macro context that reinforces it. US spot Bitcoin ETFs have been recording steady net inflows for several weeks. During the week of April 14 to 18, 2026, flows reached nearly $996 million, including $663.9 million on Friday, April 17 alone, marking the highest level since January. On April 20, net inflows into BTC ETFs reached an additional $238 million. Over the first two days of 2026, spot ETFs had already raked in $1.17 billion, a clear sign that institutional demand remains structurally solid.
These flows reflect a demand that neither bearish price pressure nor macro volatility has managed to erode. Whales and large funds continue to accumulate via these regulated vehicles, which structurally supports the price floor. As long as these inflows are maintained, the scenario of a lasting collapse remains highly unlikely according to the on-chain data available on Checkonchain.
Should you enter now or wait for the correction?
This is the question every investor is asking when faced with this type of rare setup. The MACD signal is bullish in the long term, ETF flows are positive, and the historical pattern points to a new peak. But the risk of a final drawdown before the breakout is real and well-documented in previous cycles, with drops sometimes reaching 30 to 40% before the actual takeoff.
For those considering buying Bitcoin, risk management relies on position sizing and staggered entry levels rather than going all-in on a single technical signal. The principles of money management remain the absolute priority in this type of configuration. Our Bitcoin forecast page tracks the evolution of price targets in real time. What the data confirms is this: when this signal has triggered in the past, those who respected the structure captured the most significant moves of the cycle. Those who ignored the compression paid a heavy price.
Sources:
- Bitcoinist
- X (@MerlijnTrader)
- X (@coinbureau)
- X (@CryptoPatel)
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