Dollar crash: Why isn’t Bitcoin soaring?

When the Mechanism Breaks Down: Bitcoin Loses the $87k Support

It’s a cold shower for the bulls. While Bitcoin (BTC) was struggling to maintain its bullish structure, the price gave way under selling pressure, breaking the critical support level of $87,000. This move came in a particularly fragile market context, marked by growing macroeconomic uncertainty and massive institutional capital outflows.

Recent data speaks for itself: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $1.7 billion in outflows last week, a record since February 2025. Technically, BTC is now trading in a turbulent zone where liquidity is scarce, amplifying downside volatility. Rebound attempts are systematically hitting a wall of sellers, raising fears of a visit to lower levels if buyers don’t show up quickly.

The Weak Dollar Myth: Why Isn’t Bitcoin Pumping?

Historically, the rule was simple: Dollar down = Bitcoin up. But this inverse correlation, long considered a reliable indicator, is now showing its limits. According to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s reaction to the dollar depends less on the value of the greenback than on the reason for its weakness.

We need to distinguish three key scenarios that radically change the game for your positions:

• Inflation: If the dollar falls due to inflation, Bitcoin shines as a safe haven asset (“Digital Gold”).
• Liquidity: If the dollar falls following liquidity injections (rate cuts), Bitcoin explodes as a risk asset (Risk-on).
• Fear (Current Scenario): If the dollar falls due to systemic or political instability (US shutdown threats, trade tensions), capital flees to traditional safe havens like physical Gold (which is approaching $5,000), abandoning Bitcoin deemed too volatile.

Currently, fear dominates. With threats of a US government shutdown scheduled for January 30 and tariff tensions mentioned by the Trump administration, investors are adopting a defensive posture (“Risk-off”). In this climate, Bitcoin is now treated as a speculative tech stock and not as a safe haven, which explains why it’s falling alongside the dollar.

Bears Keep Control: How Far Can the Correction Go?

Market sentiment has clearly shifted to bearish in the short term. The loss of $87,000 triggered a cascade of liquidations, wiping out nearly $170 million in long positions within hours. Analysts are now anxiously watching the $84,000 zone. If this barrier gives way, the door would be open to a more severe correction toward $72,000.

To reverse the trend and hope for a new rally, the bulls will absolutely need to reclaim $88,000 and then $91,400 with volume. Without a clear macroeconomic turnaround or a surprise announcement capable of restoring risk appetite, the path of least resistance remains southward for now. According to Killa, Bitcoin could climb back between $89,000 and $91,000 before continuing toward lower levels.

While Gold is hitting historic records amid political uncertainty, Bitcoin is struggling to validate its status as a hedge against chaos. The coming week will be decisive: if tensions around the US budget ease, liquidity could return to risk assets. But if fear persists, will $84,000 hold up against selling pressure?

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