Massive Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry: What Traders Are Watching

July 3 marks a key date for crypto derivatives markets. Billions of dollars in Bitcoin and Ethereum options have just expired, with put/call ratios and max pain levels that deserve a close read.

These weekly expirations directly influence short-term volatility. The figures from this session reveal a contrasting market sentiment between BTC and ETH — and raise questions about price direction over the coming days.

Here is what the data from Deribit shows, and why these levels are critical for anticipating the next move.

Bitcoin: $1.9 Billion in Options Expired, Bulls Remain in Control

31,000 Bitcoin options contracts expired on July 3, representing a notional value of $1.9 billion. The put-to-call ratio stands at 0.70, meaning bullish positions (calls) significantly outweigh bearish positions (puts). A ratio below 1 reflects a dominant buyer bias in the options market.

The max pain price — the level at which the maximum number of contracts expire worthless, causing the greatest loss for options holders — is set at $61,000. This level acts as a gravitational magnet as expiry approaches: market makers have an incentive to keep the price near this threshold in order to minimize their exposure. If Bitcoin moves significantly above or below this level, hedging dynamics (delta hedging) can amplify volatility.

With a put/call ratio this favorable to bulls, the overall sentiment on BTC remains constructive. Traders positioned to the upside are in the majority, which can support the price — provided the spot market confirms this dynamic. The divergence between the max pain level at $61,000 and current market prices will be a key indicator to watch at the start of the week.

Ethereum: A Put/Call Ratio Above 1 Signals Heightened Caution

On the Ethereum side, the expiration is numerically larger: 135,000 contracts expired for a notional value of $230 million. But it is the put-to-call ratio that commands attention: at 1.29, it indicates that bearish positions outweigh bullish ones on ETH.

A ratio above 1 reflects a more pronounced caution — or even pessimism — among traders on Ethereum relative to Bitcoin. Several factors may explain this divergence: ETH’s relative underperformance against BTC over recent weeks, uncertainty surrounding Ethereum ETF flows, and persistent selling pressure in the spot market. The Ethereum max pain price is set at $1,650, a level that will serve as a reference point for upcoming trading sessions.

The combination of a high notional figure (135,000 contracts) and a dominant bearish bias creates a challenging market environment for ETH. Traders will be watching whether the price converges toward the max pain level post-expiry, or whether a recovery in buying momentum contradicts the signal sent by the options market. In any case, implied volatility on ETH remains a central parameter to factor into any short-term strategy.

Max Pain and Volatility: How to Read This Data to Anticipate the Market

Options expiration is a recurring event — both weekly and monthly — that structures the calendar of professional traders. The concept of max pain is based on the theory that prices tend to gravitate toward the level at which the greatest number of options expire worthless, thereby reducing the gains of options buyers. This phenomenon is particularly observable in the hours leading up to and following expiration.

For this July 3 session, both assets present distinct configurations. Bitcoin displays a bullish profile with a put/call ratio of 0.70, while Ethereum shows more defensive signals with a ratio of 1.29. This divergence could fuel a capital rotation between the two assets, or simply reflect differentiated hedging strategies across different investor profiles.

The coming days will be decisive: if BTC manages to sustain its momentum above the max pain level at $61,000, this will reinforce the short-term bullish thesis. For ETH, a move back toward $1,650 would constitute a warning signal, while a rebound above key resistance levels could invalidate the bearish bias reflected in the options market. On-chain data and spot ETF flows will remain the complementary variables to monitor closely.