Will Bitcoin explode like Gold in 1972 or crash like in 2022? A deep dive

Bitcoin Bloodbath: Are Short-Term Holders Capitulating?

Volatility has made its grand return to the markets, and the damage is considerable for new entrants. According to the latest on-chain data shared by analyst Checkmate, the recent bearish movement in Bitcoin has triggered a wave of capitulation rarely seen since the last Bear Market. Indeed, investors who accumulated BTC during 2025 and 2026 are currently realizing colossal losses.

The figures are staggering: approximately $1.5 billion in losses are being locked in daily by these “weak hands” selling in panic. This phenomenon, technically called Realized Loss, indicates that these participants are exiting the market at a price well below their acquisition cost, thus validating their financial loss instead of holding their positions.

A Similar Scenario to 2022: Should We Fear a New Bear Market?

The most concerning aspect of this correction lies in its similarity to one of the darkest episodes in crypto history. The Bitcoin Net Realised Profit/Loss indicator shows a structure that almost perfectly mirrors the June 2022 crash. As a reminder, this period corresponded to the cascading collapse of giants like Celsius and Three Arrows Capital, dragging Bitcoin into an infernal spiral.

However, a significant nuance exists. Unlike 2022 where the panic was systemic, the current situation seems more related to a shakeout of leveraged positions and a purge of late speculators. The Long-Term Holders seem less impacted for now, suggesting that the movement is a redistribution from impatient hands to strong hands, rather than a fundamental loss of confidence in the asset.

Nevertheless, market psychology remains fragile. If this level of realized losses persists, sentiment could shift from fear to resignation, transforming a simple healthy correction into a deeper trend reversal. A break below $67,000 could open the door to a new wave of panic selling.

Can Bitcoin Bounce Back or Will It Plunge Below Key Supports?

Faced with this selling violence, the crucial question arises: has the market touched its local bottom? Historically, such peaks in realized losses often mark final capitulation points, where supply is exhausted due to lack of remaining sellers, making way for a potential relief rally.

Furthermore, even though trader Killa indicates that a drop to the low $40Ks is still possible, he highlights an identical fractal between Bitcoin and gold in 1972. If this scenario repeats with Bitcoin in 2026, current levels are a major opportunity to seize.

Killa describes that Bitcoin is currently going through a “range-based capitulation”. In other words, Bitcoin could continue to move sideways between $75,000 and $50,000 for several weeks or months before going to test $100,000 again.

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