Translated on February 12, 2026 at 14:07 by Simon Dumoulin
Copié
The Dollar (DXY) Threatened with Collapse: False Good News for Crypto?
The market is changing its tune. The Truflation index, which measures real-time inflation, shows notable cooling, pushing the odds of a Fed rate cut in March from 9.4% to over 21.2% in one week. The market is beginning to price in the first pivot of 2026. Immediate consequence: analysts anticipate that if the Fed takes action, the DXY could plummet an additional 10%, adding to its 1.4% drop since the beginning of the year.
On paper, this is the ideal scenario for a bull run. A weak dollar typically pushes investors toward risk assets like Bitcoin. Yet 2025 has broken this correlation: the crypto market has fallen 7.8% even as the dollar lost ground. The culprit? US debt. With $292 billion in interest paid in Q3 2025 and China liquidating its Treasury bonds, the financial system faces major liquidity stress. If this pressure persists, even a free-falling dollar might not be enough to propel BTC to new heights.
The world is more uncertain right now than during 9/11, the Iraq war, and Covid.
Indeed, as Rand indicates on X, the world is in a phase of uncertainty greater than 9/11, COVID, and the Iraq War combined. This context makes things even more complicated to predict.
Bitcoin (BTC): Is the $63,000 Support in Mortal Danger?
Technically, Bitcoin is navigating troubled waters. Currently trading around the $67,000 – $68,000 zone, the queen of cryptos is struggling to regain clear bullish momentum. The market structure remains fragile after the recent rejection below $72,000.
Moreover, the 14th of the month is a famous pivot point for trader Killa. An average drop of 8% occurs on BTC after the 14th of each month. In other words, if BTC pushes toward the order block in 16H by Friday, the probabilities of a rejection toward 60k, or even 52K in the coming weeks, are very high.
To turn the tide and hope for a massive breakout, the bulls must imperatively reconquer the resistance at $72,000 and break free from this selling order block that extends up to $79,000. Momentum indicators remain mixed, suggesting that indecision still reigns among whales. If the Fed disappoints or if the debt crisis intensifies, the positive correlation between dollar weakness and Bitcoin strength could be definitively broken for this cycle.
The market is at a crossroads. On one side, the prospect of increased liquidity via rate cuts is powerful fuel. On the other, macroeconomic fundamentals (debt, massive Chinese selling) act like a tight handbrake. The current zone is risky: anticipating the move could pay big, but the risk of a fakeout is real.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.
Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
Get 6200 USDT with Bitget ! 🔥
Don't miss out on this offer !
Create your account now to unlock this exclusive reward
