Bitcoin is forming a bearish ABCD technical pattern, causing concern among traders as the price slides towards the critical zone of $83,800. Amid massive outflows from crypto ETPs, promising institutional announcements in Singapore, and conflicting technical signals, investors are closely monitoring BTC's next move. The focus now shifts to how long this support zone will withstand selling pressure.
Bitcoin is currently navigating a delicate technical phase that has captured the attention of all crypto market analysts. After losing the psychological support of $99,000, BTC/USD continued its decline to reach $90,000, forming a particularly clear bearish ABCD pattern on the weekly chart during its fall. This chart structure, recognized for its reliability in technical analysis, suggests that the current correction could extend to the demand zone located at $83,800.
The ABCD configuration is characterized by remarkable symmetry between legs AB and CD, both in terms of length and slope. Technically, the CD leg precisely coincides with the Fibonacci extension at 127.2% of the AB swing, a level that typically serves as the final target in this type of pattern. The weekly RSI, which has fallen near 37, shows oversold conditions without confirming a bullish divergence, leaving the door open for the bearish movement to continue.
A particularly concerning element lies in the behavior of the 20-week exponential moving average, which is turning downward for the first time this year. This technical shift highlights clearly declining momentum and could signal a medium-term trend change. Nevertheless, the growing gap between price and this EMA 20 suggests a possible short-term technical bounce, as markets tend to retest their moving averages after moving too far away from them.
If buyers manage to defend the support zone at $84,000, Bitcoin could initiate a technical bounce toward the $96,000 – $99,000 range, where the former broken bullish trendline now acts as resistance. An engulfing bullish candle on the weekly chart near this support would constitute an entry signal for contrarian traders anticipating the start of a recovery.
Conversely, a clear break below $83,000 would open the door to deeper losses toward $74,500, a level corresponding to a major Fibonacci retracement and a former consolidation zone.
Moreover, this level also corresponds to the lower band of the STH indicator. Currently at the upper support, if BTC enters this zone, the probability of reaching the lower zone around $76,000 increases considerably.
The 3-day chart shows that BTC has broken its median line. If it doesn’t climb back above $92,000 with vigor, it has strong probabilities of seeking $75,000 before a potential bounce to $90-91,000. In this scenario, BTC could even reach between $50,000 and $70,000 by the end of the year.
The ABCD pattern suggests that Bitcoin is potentially approaching the final phase of its correction before a possible recovery. Trading volumes and price behavior around the $84,000 support will provide crucial indications about buyer strength and the probability of a bullish reversal.
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In a bearish market context, the announcement by the Singapore Exchange of the launch of perpetual futures contracts on Bitcoin and Ethereum on November 24 represents a positive signal for institutional adoption. These derivatives, regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, will allow accredited investors to trade BTC and ETH price variations without expiration constraints.
Historically, increased institutional participation improves market liquidity, reduces long-term volatility, and supports structural demand for Bitcoin. These positive developments partially counterbalance the current bearish sentiment and could play a decisive role in the next bullish phase once the technical correction is complete.
Nevertheless, potential Mt Gox sales in the coming days could cause BTC to fall more violently.
The crypto exchange-traded products market recorded massive outflows of $2 billion last week, marking the largest weekly withdrawal since February 2025 according to CoinShares data. These redemptions represent a 71% increase from the previous week’s $1.17 billion, bringing the three-week total outflows to $3.2 billion.
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, attributes this phenomenon to sales by large crypto-native investors and uncertainty surrounding monetary policy, which has significantly cooled risk appetite. Total assets under management for crypto ETPs have thus fallen from a peak of $264 billion in October to $191 billion currently, representing a 27% contraction.
Geographically, the United States represents 97% of all outflows, while Germany stands out with $13.2 million in net inflows, demonstrating selective European resilience. By asset class, Bitcoin ETPs suffered withdrawals of $1.4 billion and Ethereum products lost $700 million. Conversely, observed inflows into Short Bitcoin products and diversified funds indicate that investors are restructuring their exposure rather than completely exiting the crypto market. These massive outflows exert short-term bearish pressure on Bitcoin’s price, but experience shows they typically calm once macroeconomic clarity is restored.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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