Why did the Bitcoin price explode today?
The crypto market woke up in the green this Monday. Bitcoin is currently trading around $69,190, posting an increase of over 3.2% in the last 24 hours. This surge follows reports indicating that the United States and Iran are discussing a 45 day ceasefire.
This potential deescalation acted as a major catalyst, instantly reviving investor appetite for risk assets. Faced with this geopolitical surprise, the markets reacted with a lightning fast bullish breakout, catching many short positioned traders off guard.
Indeed, the impact on the derivatives markets has been devastating. Data shows that liquidations of short positions (short sellers) have outpaced those of long positions (buyers) by a ratio of nearly 3 to 1 over the past 12 hours. This massive short squeeze acted as additional fuel, propelling the price of BTC toward new local highs.
Is Bitcoin’s key support out of danger?
From a technical analysis perspective, reclaiming $69,000 is a strong signal. This level is a daily POC, and if it is flipped into support, Bitcoin could target $72,000 in the coming weeks, or even $76,000 to $78,000.
Momentum indicators, such as the RSI (Relative Strength Index), show that the trend still has room to grow. Oversold conditions were reached in February, while the overbought territory has yet to be explored. Furthermore, Bitcoin has, for now, bounced off its daily order block. This is a sign that smart money has defended this area.
Moreover, the trader Killa points out an important element. Numerous buy orders have been placed on Binance between its current price and $45,000. According to him, Bitcoin is in an excellent buying zone between $67,000 and $50,000.
However, a bearish scenario is not completely ruled out. If the ceasefire negotiations fail, the market could suffer a brutal correction. In this case, BTC would risk a retracement toward its immediate support located around $66,000, or even lower if panic grips investors once again.
Can Bitcoin trigger a massive bull run after this breakout?
The current dynamics raise a crucial question for traders: is this movement a simple relief rally or the starting point of a new upward leg? The answer will heavily depend on how the macroeconomic and geopolitical situation evolves in the coming days.
Additionally, it is worth noting that a cluster of longs at $64,600 could attract market makers. A liquidation of this level in the coming days remains probable. It is therefore important to stay patient and opt for observation over the next few days. Mondays are known for often forming a local top.
With short sellers now sidelined and market sentiment turning optimistic, the conditions seem ripe for a continuation of the rally. Taking a step back, Bitcoin is close to a bottom. But over the coming months, it is highly likely that market makers will shake out all the weak hands with short term volatility before truly launching the breakout.
So how high can the price of Bitcoin go if peace is confirmed and institutional buyers regain control? Even if the bottom seems closer than ever, it is best to opt for a DCA strategy and avoid leverage in order to accumulate as much BTC as possible in the $67,000 to $50,000 zone.
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