Will the $1.30 support break under selling pressure?
Currently trading around $1.32, the Ripple token is holding its breath. After a long period of uncertainty, the XRP monthly chart is showing a worrying bearish streak of six consecutive months. Buyers are desperately trying to defend the psychological and technical support at $1.30, but the overall momentum remains extremely fragile. If this zone gives way, the consequences could be devastating for investors positioned to the upside.
Technical analysis reveals a particularly tense setup. The monthly Bollinger Bands, a key indicator for measuring market volatility, highlight the risk of a major retracement. The lower band is located exactly at $0.6261, a level that acts as a true magnet in the event of a bearish breakdown. The market is closely watching this price zone, which could redefine the medium term trend heading into 2026.
Can XRP avoid a crash and ignite a bullish rally?
If the $1.30 support eventually breaks, the market could witness a staggering correction of nearly 50%. This worst case scenario would shatter hopes of a spring bull run. The 2 week chart indicates a strong liquidity zone between $0.87 and $0.40, according to the VPFR.
To invalidate this bearish scenario, bulls must absolutely regain control and propel the price beyond the $1.40 resistance and hold above it. A significant increase in buying volume, coupled with a positive reversal of momentum indicators like the RSI or the MACD, would be essential to initiate a new rally toward its previous ATH. Traders should watch for a bullish divergence on the 3 day chart RSI, which would be a solid first buy signal.
For now, the 2 week RSI sits at 37, much lower than when the XRP price was at $0.53 in August 2024. This signal confirms the lack of bullish momentum and increases the probabilities of a bearish continuation in the coming months.
In the short term, the liquidation map shows two massive short clusters at $1.38 and $1.56. Despite the Bitcoin bounce to $69,000 this Wednesday, XRP failed to break past this $1.36 threshold.
Should you buy or sell XRP?
For now, it is clear that XRP is not yet out of its bearish phase. In fact, XRP is currently experiencing its worst drop since 2014. Indeed, XRP is on its sixth consecutive red monthly candle, representing its worst negative streak since 2014. Since the beginning of this disastrous run, XRP has lost roughly 11% per month.
By comparison, in 2014, XRP suffered 7 consecutive red monthly candles with an average loss of 27% per month. So either XRP will experience a less severe drop and the bullish reversal is near, or XRP is on the verge of suffering a violent crash.
The risk of accumulating at this level does not really make sense and the risk reward ratio is not appealing at all. It is better to stay patient or accumulate a crypto on stronger supports if a bullish reversal emerges in the crypto market.
To conclude, the long term outlook remains nevertheless very solid for XRP. Over 11,000 banks have already tested XRP on the SWIFT network. An integration of Ripple and XRP on the SWIFT network could trigger massive adoption in the coming years.
Sources:
Related Articles:
