The Weakest Bear Market in History?
After reaching a spectacular ATH above $126,000, Bitcoin suffered a violent retracement of approximately 50%, returning to test the strategic zone of $60,000 – $70,000 at the beginning of 2026. For many investors, this movement resembles a brutal return of the bear market. However, for Bernstein analysts, this correction should not be interpreted as a structural collapse, but rather as a classic breathing phase in a bull cycle that remains intact.
In their latest report, they describe the current situation as the mildest “worst bear case” in Bitcoin’s history. Unlike previous crypto winters marked by systemic bankruptcies (Mt. Gox, FTX) or excessive leverage causing cascading liquidations, the current decline would be essentially psychological. The infrastructure is holding, no major player has collapsed, and the network fundamentals remain solid.
Bernstein also highlights that spot Bitcoin ETFs are functioning normally and continue to record significant flows despite the volatility. The market would simply be purging the speculative excesses accumulated during the rise to the peaks, without questioning the long-term investment thesis on BTC.
Institutions and AI: The Drivers of the Next Rally
Despite the correction, Bernstein maintains an ambitious target of $150,000 by the end of 2026, based on two main drivers: growing institutional adoption and the transformation of the mining sector. ETF-related flows remain relatively stable, suggesting that large institutions and “whales” are using this weakness phase to strengthen their positions at more attractive levels.
The mining sector, historically weakened during prolonged declines, now shows unprecedented resilience. Thanks to diversification into Artificial Intelligence, many mining companies now lease their computing power to technology players, reducing their exclusive dependence on Bitcoin’s price. This new revenue source significantly limits the risk of massive capitulation observed in previous cycles.
Around $70,000, the risk/reward ratio appears particularly attractive according to this reading. On-chain data indicates that long-term holders are not selling massively, which reinforces the hypothesis of a solid floor. If confidence returns and FOMO reinstalls itself, Bitcoin could quickly trigger a new bullish impulse toward historical peaks.
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