Bitcoin vs SpaceX IPO: Can Crypto Withstand This Liquidity Shock?

Bitcoin is back in the green above $64,000 after a week of intense volatility. But a new macro risk is emerging on the horizon: the potential IPO of SpaceX, Elon Musk‘s aerospace company, could shake up global financial markets in a significant way.

The question is far from trivial. An IPO of this scale mechanically draws capital away from other asset classes — including risk assets like Bitcoin. Here’s a breakdown of what’s at stake.

Caught between geopolitical relief, a technical rebound, and looming macro pressure, BTC is navigating choppy waters. Here’s why the next few weeks could be decisive.

Bitcoin rebounds after geopolitical relief, but caution remains

On June 11, Bitcoin absorbed a sharp correction before recovering nearly 3% by the close of the session. The catalyst? Donald Trump‘s cancellation of planned US strikes against Iran, which immediately reduced the risk premium across markets. Traders quickly repositioned into risk assets, with Bitcoin leading the charge.

This kind of reaction highlights the growing correlation between BTC and broader macro sentiment. When geopolitical tensions ease, capital flows back into risk — and Bitcoin benefits directly. The $63,000–$64,000 support level held firm, confirming a solid short-term accumulation zone.

However, the rebound remains fragile. Buying volume has not yet confirmed a structural bullish reversal. On TradingView, the daily RSI is hovering in neutral territory with no clear breakout signal. Bulls absolutely need to defend the $64,500 zone if they want to target $68,000–$70,000 over the medium term.

The SpaceX IPO: a liquidity vacuum for crypto markets?

SpaceX is valued at over $200 billion based on the latest secondary market transactions. An IPO of this magnitude would rank among the largest in US market history. And that is precisely where the problem for Bitcoin begins.

During major IPOs, both institutional and retail investors aggressively reallocate their portfolios. Assets perceived as more speculative — including cryptocurrencies — can experience significant capital outflows. The substitution effect is well documented: when a seemingly more “legitimate” opportunity emerges, a portion of capital migrates toward it at the expense of alternative assets.

On the other hand, some analysts put forward a more nuanced scenario. Elon Musk has an ambivalent but genuine relationship with the crypto ecosystem — particularly through Dogecoin and his past statements on Bitcoin. A successful SpaceX IPO could boost overall risk appetite and, indirectly, benefit BTC. Everything will depend on the timing and the macro environment at the moment of launch.

What on-chain data says about Bitcoin’s resilience

Despite the uncertainty, on-chain metrics remain broadly constructive. According to data from CryptoQuant, Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline — a classic signal of accumulation by long-term holders. Fewer BTC available for sale on trading platforms mechanically translates to less potential selling pressure.

Additionally, the Realized Price for short-term holders sits around $62,000–$63,000. As long as the spot price remains above this level, these participants are sitting on unrealized gains and are less likely to panic sell. This represents an important psychological and technical floor to watch closely.

Data from CoinGlass also shows that long position liquidations have remained contained since the June 11 rebound. The derivatives market is not signaling excessive leverage in the short term, which limits the risk of a violent flush. Bitcoin therefore appears to have a solid enough foundation to absorb moderate macro pressure — but a large-scale SpaceX IPO would represent an unprecedented stress test.