Prediction Markets Paint a Mixed Picture
Data from leading crypto prediction platforms shows that bettors are maintaining a predominantly bullish outlook, but with expectations now tempered. Unlike previous weeks when massive bets were placed on a rapid explosion to new highs, the current trend suggests prolonged consolidation.
Positions on Polymarket and Kalshi, two of the most active platforms, indicate that approximately 60% of participants anticipate Bitcoin will break through $100,000 before the end of Q1 2025. This probability, while encouraging, reflects a notable decline from the 75% observed in mid-November when post-U.S. election euphoria dominated market sentiment.
Betting volumes also reveal a shift in dynamics. Short-term positions on an explosive near-term rally have significantly decreased, while bets on a gradually ascending trajectory are gaining popularity.
Technical Analysis: Between Pump and Dump
From a purely chartist perspective, Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range. It perfectly bounced off its order block on the daily timeframe and reintegrated the range this morning. Currently hovering near $88,000, BTC must hold above $86,200 to maintain short-term bullish momentum.
Momentum indicators like the RSI show a bullish divergence. Sellers are losing strength and the chart shows a reversal in preparation. Nevertheless, the short term remains extremely volatile. The cluster of longs to liquidate at $83,600 could attract price action in the coming days.
Derivatives markets provide additional insight. The funding rate on perpetual contracts remains slightly positive but far from the peaks observed during euphoric phases. This moderation suggests that leveraged traders are adopting a more cautious stance, avoiding overly aggressive positions in an uncertain environment.
Macroeconomic Factors and Institutional Repositioning
Beyond technical considerations, several macroeconomic catalysts are influencing prediction market projections. U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy remains at the center of concerns, with revised expectations regarding the pace of rate cuts in 2025. Jerome Powell’s latest statements have tempered hopes for aggressive monetary easing, which weighs on appetite for risk assets.
Additionally, the historic rise in Japanese interest rates to 0.75% is a record not seen in over 30 years. For now, stock markets have not yet opened and their reactions will greatly influence BTC.
Institutional flows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are also showing signs of slowing. After weeks of massive inflows regularly exceeding $1 billion, recent weekly data reveals a normalization around $400 to $600 million. Indeed, this is the second worst quarter in terms of BTC inflow volumes since their launch.
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