Bitcoin under pressure amid uncertain macro backdrop
Bitcoin has reached its lowest level in two months, reflecting growing investor anxiety in the face of an uncertain macroeconomic environment. The break of a key technical support, combined with low trading volumes, suggests a widespread lack of conviction and paves the way for a potential extension of the correction.
On-chain data shows moderate accumulation by long-term holders, insufficient to offset the selling pressure from short-term traders. The Long/Short ratio remains dominated by bearish positions, while nearby liquidation zones could amplify volatility.
This weakness is part of a broader capital rotation out of risk assets. The high correlation with US tech indices confirms that BTC is still perceived as a growth asset rather than a safe haven, casting doubt on the strength of the current floor.
Fed, politics, and scenarios for the coming weeks
Political pressure from Donald Trump for a rapid rate cut is reigniting tensions with the Federal Reserve, which remains cautious in the face of persistent inflation. Historically, lower rates support risk assets. But the current context limits the Fed’s room for maneuver and maintains market uncertainty.
Three scenarios are emerging for Bitcoin. A bullish scenario would emerge with an easing of inflation and a more dovish tone, favoring a return of risk appetite. Conversely, a bearish scenario would prolong the pressure if restrictive monetary policy persists, with a risk of cascading liquidations.
The most likely scenario remains a sideways consolidation, fueled by reduced volumes and investor wait-and-see attitudes. In this context, market participants are closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators, FOMC statements, as well as technical levels and on-chain metrics, awaiting a decisive catalyst to sustainably direct the market.
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