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Bitcoin at a Turning Point : Can the Rally Continue ?
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Bitcoin at a Turning Point : Can the Rally Continue ?

Crypto investors worldwide are eagerly awaiting the US inflation rate announcement on Tuesday, May 13, 2025, at 2:30 pm. This macroeconomic indicator could significantly impact Bitcoin's price trajectory.

Written by Gaston Cuny

Translated on May 13, 2025 at 16:49 by Sarah

Bitcoin logo on a mountain.
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An Increasingly Strategic Equation for Bitcoin

The link between inflation in the United States and the price of Bitcoin has strengthened since the pandemic. As an asset perceived as a hedge against monetary depreciation, BTC now reacts more to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions.

All market players – individual investors, institutional investors, and exchange platforms – will closely monitor the US CPI figures today.

Every month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the monthly US inflation at 2:30 pm Paris time. The forecasts this time are:

  • A 0.25% increase in the overall CPI
  • An annual variation of CPI at 2.3%, the lowest in 4 years
  • A Core CPI of +0.26% monthly and 2.8% annually

If the figures are higher than expected, the Fed will maintain its restrictive monetary policy, which would be negative for Bitcoin. Conversely, a sharp drop in inflation could revive hopes of rate cuts.

The Fed’s Balancing Act

According to Goldman Sachs, the first interest rate cut is no longer expected in July but rather in December 2025. Despite persistent inflation, the probability of a short-term recession is decreasing.

A robust economy implies less pressure on the Fed to act, which could result in consolidation or a decline in the price of Bitcoin. Conversely, a deterioration in macroeconomic indicators would revive hopes of a monetary policy pivot, beneficial for BTC.

For crypto investors, several elements are worth monitoring:

  • The hedge role of Bitcoin becomes more nuanced in periods of high interest rates
  • Persistent inflation could weaken the euro against the dollar, indirectly weakening flows into cryptos
  • But a downside surprise in inflation would allow BTC to return to an uptrend

Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin Price

  1. Lower than expected inflation: Anticipation of a quicker Fed pivot, likely Bitcoin rise above $65,000
  2. Higher than expected inflation: Maintenance of restrictive monetary policy, high probability of Bitcoin correction (back to $58,000 – $60,000)
  3. Inflation as expected: Short-term sideways consolidation of BTC

This Tuesday’s announcement represents a turning point for the Bitcoin price. The US inflation figure could mark the beginning of a new uptrend or strengthen the current consolidation.

For crypto investors, it is a time for caution but also for actively observing Fed signals and key technical levels of BTC.

More on this topic :

Gaston Cuny

Gaston Cuny

Gaston has been a writer for over 7 years and a passionate cryptocurrency enthusiast since 2020. He loves exploring the crypto ecosystem and is now dedicated to sharing his insights and discoveries through InvestX.

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