A surprising trend emerges: Asian markets are buying Bitcoin daily, while American investors are selling. On-chain data reveals a stark contrast in market sentiment between the two regions. Should we follow Asia, often ahead in major bullish cycles, or be wary of US sell-offs signaling a crash? Here's what the data truly indicates.
On-chain data from this week confirms a clear trend: American trading hours systematically generate losses, while Asian sessions stabilize and often recover Bitcoin ‘s price. This dynamic has evolved into an almost mechanical cycle that traders have learned to anticipate.
A market observer perfectly summarizes it on X: “Every single America session consists of relentless selling for hours. Then the Asians wake up and buy it all back until the Americans wake up. Like literal clockwork.” This regularity transforms the market into a theater of regional opposition that redefines the traditional 24/7 trading structure.
The Coinbase Premium Index, a key indicator of American institutional sentiment, has remained in negative territory throughout nearly all of November. This signal reveals persistent skepticism from American institutions regarding current price levels. The high volumes on American exchanges mechanically amplify the impact of these sales on the global market, creating downward pressure that only Asian accumulation manages to contain.
This divergence is explained by radically different risk appetites. American traders appear to be reacting to local macroeconomic signals, perhaps anticipating monetary policy adjustments or liquidity needs before year-end. Conversely, Asian markets display long-term bullish conviction, perceiving each dip as a strategic accumulation opportunity at attractive price levels.
The market structure reveals another interesting fracture: retail investors display a generally bearish sentiment, while whales remain bullish. But the most striking contrast concerns American institutions, whose negative positioning contrasts with the sustained accumulation observed in other regions.
Ki Young Ju, a renowned on-chain analyst, advances a bold thesis: the traditional bull cycle for Bitcoin technically ended in early 2024 when it broke through $100,000. According to classic cyclical models, the price should retest levels around $56,000 to establish a new cycle low.
However, Ju highlights a new factor that could invalidate these historical projections: massive institutional absorption of Bitcoin. Corporate treasuries like MicroStrategy aggressively accumulate at every correction, creating a virtual price floor. These strategic actors, unlike participants in previous cycles, do not capitulate during bearish phases. Their multi-year investment horizon and fundamental conviction profoundly modify market dynamics.
This concentration nevertheless creates new risks. If these institutions were to face financial difficulties or revise their strategy, any significant distribution could provoke a major disruption. For now, their commitment remains intact, gradually transforming the very structure of the Bitcoin market.
Chris Kuiper, Vice President of Research at Fidelity Digital Assets, adopts a resolutely optimistic reading of the current situation. For him, this correction represents a standard adjustment within a bull market that remains fundamentally intact.
His analysis relies on the MVRV ratio of short-term holders, an on-chain indicator that measures the average profitability of recent buyers. This ratio shows that the current price is testing the conviction of new entrants, reproducing a pattern observed during previous corrections that preceded new rallies. Recent holders experience temporary unrealized losses before the market resets and resumes its upward trajectory.
The absence of major negative events supports this reading. No significant regulatory action, no exchange failure, nor macroeconomic shock triggered this correction. Profit-taking and leveraged position liquidations after the rise toward $100,000 appear to constitute the main causes of this pullback.
Traders now face two scenarios. Either American sentiment gradually improves, allowing convergence with Asian bullish appetite. Or this divergence persists and signals a structural evolution of global market dynamics, with growing influence from Asian markets on Bitcoin price formation.
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