The large hands behind Cardano resumed their massive distribution on July 1st. In just seven days, 190 million ADA left whale wallets, pushing the token below $0.172 on July 8th.
On-chain data from Santiment reveals structured selling pressure — not a simple market accident. Three distinct whale cohorts are acting in concert, and derivatives confirm that shorts are holding firm.
The real question is not whether the pressure exists: it is obvious. The question is how far it can drag ADA down — and whether the Fibonacci floor at $0.138 is now firmly in the crosshairs.
Massive Distribution: Three Whale Cohorts Offloading at Once
Santiment Supply Distribution data identifies three precise segments simultaneously unloading their positions: wallets holding between 100,000 and 1 million ADA, those between 1 million and 10 million, and those between 10 million and 100 million. All three resumed their offloading following last week’s brief bounce.
This move is not isolated. In early June, a first wave saw approximately 260 million ADA exit these same cohorts, according to a Mitrade analysis dated June 12th. The current sequence therefore fits into a multi-week distribution cycle, with slightly lower intensity than the previous episode — but an identical dynamic.
One important piece of context: during the June wave, the long/short ratio on CoinGlass stood at 0.68 — a significantly more bearish level than the current 0.79. The market has not yet reached peak pessimism according to this metric. This means the distribution could have further room to run before reaching exhaustion.
Derivatives Reinforce the Picture: Shorts Are Being Paid to Hold
CoinGlass derivatives data on ADA corroborates the on-chain picture. The funding rate has flipped negative, sitting at -0.0060% on an open interest-weighted basis. In practical terms, shorts are collecting payments from longs — a strong signal that the market is collectively anticipating a continuation of the downtrend.
The long/short ratio at 0.79 — near a one-month low and below the neutral threshold of 1.0 — confirms the same directional bias. More traders are positioned short than long. And with a negative funding rate, the classic short squeeze — one of the most common catalysts for a sharp recovery — is mechanically neutralized.
Technical Structure: Every Resistance Level Is Pushing Buyers Back
The ADA chart leaves no room for ambiguity. Three major EMAs are sitting above the current price and acting as dynamic resistance levels: the 50-day EMA at $0.185, the 100-day EMA at $0.216, and the 200-day EMA at $0.289. The most recent bounce was stopped dead at the 32.82% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.195, confirming that sellers are stepping in at every recovery attempt.
ADA is currently testing immediate resistance at $0.173 from below — the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Above that, the $0.185–$0.195 zone concentrates the 50-day EMA and the 38.2% retracement, forming a double technical ceiling that is difficult to break through in the current environment. Should the current support give way, the next key bearish reference level sits at the Fibonacci cyclical low of $0.138 — representing an additional decline of nearly 20% from current levels.
