The End of an Era: Why the 4-Year Cycle May Be Over
The four-year cycle, driven by the “halvings” (reduction by half of mining rewards), has long been the metronome of the Bitcoin market, dictating its phases of euphoria and correction. However, according to CZ, this model is giving way to more powerful factors. Massive institutional adoption, marked by the arrival of Bitcoin ETFs and accumulation by major corporations, has changed the game.
Unlike previous cycles, dominated by retail investors, the current market sees significant participation from Wall Street, bringing more stable and structural demand. Moreover, macroeconomic factors, such as central bank monetary policies and political decisions (notably the pro-crypto approach of the Trump administration), could now have an equal, or even greater, influence than the halving.
The Supercycle: A Future Without Major Crashes?
The idea of a supercycle implies an extended period of growth without the devastating 70-80% crashes that have characterized previous cycles. Instead of the extreme volatility of the “boom-bust” pattern, Bitcoin could experience more gradual and sustained appreciation, becoming a true global store of value integrated into the financial system.
In this scenario, corrections would be less severe and the bull trend much longer. This is a vision shared by other analysts, such as those at Bernstein, who predict Bitcoin at $1 million in the long term, arguing that the four-year cycle is effectively over.
Target $100,000: Dead Cat Bounce or Start of the Rally?
While the supercycle vision emerges on the horizon, traders are focusing on more immediate targets. After a rebound from $87,000, many analysts are eyeing the psychological barrier of $100,000.
However, the debate rages on: is this a genuine recovery or a “dead cat bounce,” a temporary spike before another drop? Top traders estimate that a rally toward the $100,000 to $107,000 zone is possible in the coming months, but a sustained break above the $95,000 resistance with high volume will be crucial to confirm the uptrend. If this level is rejected, a return to lower supports remains a possibility.
CZ’s statement is not merely a prediction, but a reflection of a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s perception and use. The digital asset is maturing, transitioning from a niche speculative tool to an asset class recognized by the largest financial institutions. If the supercycle materializes, it would mean that Bitcoin has reached a point of no return in its global adoption, positioning it as an essential component of the financial landscape for decades to come. For investors, this could mark the end of extreme fear and euphoria cycles, and the beginning of a new era of more predictable growth.
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