As Bitcoin drops below $90,000, a concerning trend emerges: thousands of BTC dormant for 3 to 5 years are suddenly on the move. Analyst Maartunn warns of this unusual activity during a period of market stress. Could these historic movements signal a final capitulation or pave the way for a major turnaround?
The massive reactivation of these dormant Bitcoin wallets comes against a particularly complex macroeconomic backdrop. On one hand, the market faces an accumulation of anxiety-inducing factors fueling selling pressure. Persistent rumors surrounding the solidity of Tether’s reserves have resurfaced, reigniting concerns about liquidity stability on major exchange platforms.
Simultaneously, old narratives regarding a supposed Bitcoin ban in China are circulating again on social media, despite the complete absence of new regulatory developments. These recycled FUD nonetheless find resonance in a psychologically weakened market, where every negative headline amplifies the prevailing bearish sentiment.
Yet, the macroeconomic picture also presents potentially favorable elements for risk assets. The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to end its quantitative tightening (QT) program, a policy that had drained liquidity from the financial system for nearly two years. Markets are now pricing in an increasing probability of interest rate cuts as early as December, a monetary policy shift that has historically supported assets like Bitcoin.
This collision between positive and negative signals creates a period of maximum uncertainty. Long-term holders moving their coins after several years of inactivity are likely reacting to this unique configuration. Their behavior could signal either anticipated profit-taking ahead of a deeper correction, or strategic repositioning before a potential trend reversal.
The daily Bitcoin chart leaves no room for doubt: Sellers are in complete control of the market direction. After losing the critical level of $115,000, BTC has sliced through all its major moving averages (50 SMA, 100 SMA, 200 SMA) like a hot knife through butter. These moving averages now all sit above the current price, a classic configuration of a confirmed downtrend.
Price action around the $86,000 to $88,000 zone reveals a hesitant market, unable to generate a convincing bounce despite the magnitude of the correction from the highs. Bullish recovery attempts systematically lack volume and conviction, with buyers remaining cautiously on the sidelines. Volume spikes concentrate primarily on large red candles, a sign of forced liquidations and panic selling, rather than opportunistic accumulation.
For a trend reversal to become technically credible, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $92,000 to $95,000 zone with substantial volume. In the absence of this signal of strength, the risk of continued downside remains elevated. The next major support levels lie between $80,000 and $78,000, levels corresponding to former consolidation zones that could offer a temporary floor. Traders are closely monitoring these technical zones while keeping an eye on on-chain metrics that could precede a shift in momentum.
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