FOMC meeting this week: Is this Bitcoin surge a manipulation?

Bitcoin Hits a Wall: What Will the Fed Decide This Wednesday?

The cryptocurrency market is currently plunged into an unbearable phase of wait-and-see. Historically, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings dictate the trend for risk assets, and Bitcoin is no exception. This Wednesday, March 18, 2026, Jerome Powell will take the floor to announce the direction of US monetary policy. Currently set between 3.50% and 3.75%, interest rates are at the heart of all trader speculation.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is more than a 99% chance that the Fed will opt to maintain its rates. However, the macroeconomic context is particularly tense. With US GDP growth slowing to 0.7% in the last quarter and inflation still persistent, the specter of bearish pressure looms over the markets. Investors fear a severe correction if the Fed adopts too restrictive a tone in the face of this emerging stagflation.

Despite these uncertainties, the king of cryptos is staying the course. BTC is navigating in a tight range, refusing to give in to panic. Whales continue to accumulate, anticipating that a simple positive signal would be enough to trigger a monumental breakout. The market knows that the real information will not lie in maintaining rates, but in future economic projections.

The Fed’s “Dot Plot”: The Spark of a New Crypto Rally?

While the decision on rates seems already priced in by market operators, it’s the famous “Dot Plot” that’s capturing all the attention. This chart, which summarizes Fed members’ rate expectations for the end of 2026, will be the real catalyst. If the document hints at several rate cuts in the coming months, it could mark the starting point of a rally of unprecedented magnitude for the crypto ecosystem.

A more accommodative monetary policy mechanically has the effect of weakening the US dollar, thus pushing capital toward alternative safe havens and high-volatility assets. In this scenario, liquidity would flow massively toward exchanges, propelling altcoins and Bitcoin to new heights. Conversely, if the Fed postpones its rate cuts to 2027, a brutal retracement cannot be ruled out, liquidating overly optimistic positions in the process.

Professional traders are therefore preparing for extreme volatility in the hours following the announcement. Order books show a strong resistance zone around $74,000, while key support is located around $62,000. Liquidation data shows a high concentration of leverage at $80,000 and $68,000.

Faced with this explosive cocktail of economic indicators and tense technical configurations, the next 48 hours promise to be decisive. Is Bitcoin about to trigger the most aggressive phase of its bull run, or will we witness another manipulation to return to lower lows?

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