Why the Price of Gold (XAU) Could Smash New Highs
Physical gold (XAU) continues to surprise both traditional and crypto markets. Following a healthy correction, the precious metal confirmed a breakout from its descending channel, flipping the former resistance and POC at $4,700 into support. This technical breakout is a strong signal for buyers who are now targeting much higher levels.
According to the latest technical analysis, if daily closes hold above $4,720, the next bullish wave could trigger rapidly. The first objective is set at $4,800, with a primary target of $4,850, corresponding to a key Fibonacci level. Does this bounce indicate that the gold bull run is not over and show that the appetite for safe haven assets is still very much present?
The Fibonacci levels point to a potential 618 target around $5,600 in the coming months. Before reaching that point, the two major resistances are located at $4,800 and $5,300. These represent the two biggest short and medium term hurdles for gold.
On the leverage side, the liquidation heatmap on Hyperliquid shows clusters of longs at $4,400. However, shorts are starting to accumulate with major targets between $4,800 and $4,900. Between the current price and $4,400, there are far fewer longs.
The NFP Report: The Catalyst That Will Trigger Explosive Volatility?
While the technical analysis is decidedly bullish, traders are keeping a close eye on the economic calendar. The imminent release of the US Non Farm Payrolls (NFP) employment report this Friday is the next major catalyst. Unexpected data could trigger massive volatility on XAU/USD, as well as across the crypto market.
Historically, weakness in the US job market drives investors toward gold and Bitcoin, as they anticipate rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. However, since Bitcoin has been closely tracking the SP500, BTC is often sidelined in favor of metals in this type of environment.
If this scenario plays out once again, the current rally could accelerate, propelling the price of gold toward the psychological threshold of $5,300.
Gold at $5,000: Is It the Right Time to Position Yourself?
With a four hour chart validating bullish targets and an RSI that still has room to grow before hitting overbought territory, the momentum of gold seems unstoppable. The recent retracement to $4,692 is seen merely as simple profit taking ahead of the NFP shock, invalidating any bearish scenario for the time being.
The trader Altstreetbets is betting on a gold pump toward $7,000. This offers almost a 2x for the long term. According to him, the second wave of the precious metals cycle has just begun. His invalidation for this bullish thesis is a drop below $4,200. For now, gold remains stuck between buyers and sellers in a fierce battle between $5,000 and $4,300.
This bullish thesis resonates with recognized market experts. Notably with Peter Schiff, a staunch advocate for physical gold, who has been predicting an explosive rally toward $10,000 for years, driven by massive US debt and global dedollarization. Similarly, geopolitical strategist Jim Rickards anticipates a gradual return to the gold standard that would propel XAU well beyond $5,300. These perspectives reinforce the conviction that the gold bull run is only in its early stages, offering exceptional opportunities for patient investors.
However, caution remains essential in the face of macroeconomic announcements. As gold targets $5,000 and Bitcoin holds its ground at historic levels, investors are asking themselves a crucial question. How far can this safe haven asset bull run go before the next major market correction?
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