Grayscale has just released projections that every serious crypto investor should pay close attention to. According to the American asset manager, Ethereum and Solana could see their inflation rates drop significantly over the coming years — a dynamic that could fundamentally transform their asset profile.

Less new supply, consolidating demand, intensifying burn and staking mechanisms: the conditions for structural scarcity appear to be falling into place for these two major blockchains. But are the figures put forward by Grayscale actually realistic?

Here is a full breakdown of the projections and their concrete implications for the market.

Grayscale Anticipates Historic Supply Compression on ETH and SOL

In its report, Grayscale highlights that Ethereum’s net inflation rate has already been hovering around 0% since the activation of the EIP-1559 mechanism and the transition to Proof-of-Stake. The burning of transaction fees combined with staking emissions regularly pushes ETH into deflationary territory during periods of high on-chain activity. The firm projects that this trend will strengthen as network usage continues to grow.

For Solana, the picture is different but the trajectory converges. SOL’s inflation rate follows a programmatic reduction schedule: it starts at 8% at genesis and decreases by 15% per year until it reaches a floor rate of 1.5%. Grayscale estimates that this gradual disinflation, coupled with a high staking rate — currently more than 65% of the circulating supply is staked — mechanically reduces selling pressure on the secondary market.

Both dynamics converge toward the same outcome: available market supply contracting, while institutional demand — driven in particular by spot ETFs and structured products — continues to grow.

Programmatic Scarcity: What Is the Real Impact on Price Action?

In traditional financial markets, supply compression is one of the most powerful long-term price appreciation catalysts. In crypto, this mechanism is amplified by on-chain transparency: every change in supply is visible in real time, directly influencing market sentiment and the decisions of institutional traders.

For Ethereum, data from CryptoQuant shows that ETH outflows from centralised exchanges remain sustained, a sign that holders prefer staking or self-custody over immediate liquidity. Fewer ETH available on order books mechanically creates stronger support in the event of buying pressure. Support levels around $3,000 could therefore consolidate structurally if the trend holds.

For Solana, the relative scarcity is even more pronounced: with more than two thirds of the supply locked in staking, the effective float of SOL is well below its apparent market capitalisation. Grayscale sees this as a fundamental argument for a gradual revaluation, independent of short-term speculative cycles. That said, SOL’s inherent volatility — as an asset still highly sensitive to capital rotation between altcoins — tempers any overly linear scenario.

The Limits of the Scenario: What Grayscale Does Not Say

Grayscale‘s projections rest on several assumptions that deserve scrutiny. The first is the assumption of continuous and growing adoption of both networks. Yet competition among Layer-1 blockchains remains fierce — Sui, Aptos, Berachain, and other challengers are capturing an increasing share of DeFi activity and new developers.

The second assumption concerns the stability of governance mechanisms. On Ethereum, any modification to the issuance rate or burn mechanism requires a community vote. Even a marginal change in monetary policy could invalidate current projections. On Solana, the inflation schedule is embedded in the protocol, but the community has already debated accelerating disinflation through SIMD-0228, a proposal that could reduce the issuance rate even faster.

Finally, scarcity only creates value if demand keeps pace. Grayscale‘s projections make a solid structural case, but they are not sufficient to predict the timing or the magnitude of any potential bullish move on ETH or SOL.