Monad's MON token launch in 2025 defies airdrop norms with a remarkable 35% surge amidst the usual project failures. Will this exceptional performance withstand the mounting selling pressure?
The launch of the MON cryptocurrency on November 24, 2025, made a lasting impression. In a fragile market context where most airdrops lose 40 to 60% of their value within hours, MON moved in the opposite direction with a 35% pump during the first 24 hours. This performance stands in stark contrast to the typical pattern seen in airdrop distributions.
However, the initial euphoria is beginning to fade. On-chain data reveals that airdrop recipients are gradually moving their tokens to exchanges. With more than 10.8 billion tokens already unlocked, latent selling pressure remains a sword of Damocles hanging over the price. Liquidity remains uneven and order books lack depth, amplifying every movement in both directions.
Volume is also starting to weaken, a sign that early buyers are taking profits while new entrants remain cautious. Without a constant influx of fresh capital, maintaining this bullish momentum looks complicated for the coming days.
Analysis of perpetual positions offers a particularly revealing glimpse into current crypto market sentiment. Over the last 24 hours, the bias has clearly reversed toward a bearish orientation. The data doesn’t lie: the top 100 addresses reduced their net long exposure by 118%, meaning they’ve moved into negative territory. This is a strong signal that mega whales are anticipating a correction.
On the smart money side, the situation is even more pronounced. These traders display a net negative position of $103.94 million, representing a 628% drop in their long exposure. These players, renowned for their entry and exit timing, are clearly voting against an immediate continuation of the uptrend.
Ordinary whales also remain in bearish territory, even though they have slightly increased their long positions with a 676% adjustment. This increase doesn’t compensate for their overall negative bias, but it marginally reduces selling pressure. Overall, the market’s largest investors are reducing their upside risk, preferring to adopt a defensive posture in the face of MON’s persistent volatility.
Institutional money flow shows clear signs of weakening on the hourly chart. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) attempted a recovery at launch but never managed to break its upper trendline.
The On-Balance Volume (OBV) tells a similar story. Although it hasn’t yet dropped sharply, it’s stagnating and forming a bearish divergence.
Moreover, MON is currently hitting a 1-hour Order Block at $0.038. However, it’s managing to regain and hold above its POC at $0.032. Its CVD is also displaying new highs.
In summary, it’s still too early to clearly define its direction in the coming days. A break above $0.038 could be a bullish signal toward $0.064 and $0.12 subsequently.
Indeed, zooming out, the daily chart shows massive accumulation at its lows. If MON maintains its POC and support at $0.025, it has every chance of experiencing this surge of more than 200%.
The convergence of these two indicators with perpetual position data paints a coherent picture: caution is gaining ground, but a revival in volumes could propel it toward a gain of more than 200%.
The MON token is currently trading in a narrow range that could explode in either direction. To reverse the momentum upward, MON must close above $0.044. This threshold sits just above the recent consolidation zone. A clean breakout above would open the path toward $0.064, but this extension absolutely requires the OBV to recover and the CMF to break its resistance. Without these technical confirmations, upside potential remains limited.
On the downside, the critical level to watch sits at $0.029 on the 4-hour timeframe. A close below this support would directly expose the price to $0.025, representing a potential drop of nearly 25% from current levels. This level served as a base just after airdrop liquidity arrived on exchanges. Losing it would signal that sales from new holders still dominate the market.
With the mass of unlocked tokens and continuous transfers to trading platforms, volatility could remain extreme in the coming days. Traders must absolutely define their stop-loss levels and avoid trading with excessive leverage in these immature market conditions.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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