NVT Ratio Reveals a Structural Imbalance
Dogecoin ‘s Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio is showing a marked increase that warrants attention. This metric compares market capitalization to on-chain transaction volume, and a rise typically indicates that the price is moving faster than the network’s actual activity. In other words, the market is valuing DOGE beyond its effective transactional use.
In a bearish context, this type of imbalance often represents a warning signal. The price becomes vulnerable to sharper corrections if on-chain activity doesn’t catch up with the valuation. However, the timing of this situation coincides precisely with the launch of the Grayscale ETF, scheduled for Monday. If this ETF attracts substantial institutional flows as anticipated, the NVT ratio could quickly normalize thanks to increased transaction volume.
The stakes therefore become clear: Monday could either validate the current overvaluation by triggering a deeper correction, or completely reset the metrics thanks to new capital flows. Traders are particularly watching the support level at $0.142, which currently constitutes DOGE‘s defensive floor.
Long-Term Holders Strengthen Their Positions on Dogecoin
While the NVT ratio raises concerns, Dogecoin’s Liveliness is sending an opposite signal: It has been increasing for several days, indicating that long-term holders are accumulating and holding their DOGE. This retention strengthens price stability during downturns, as hodlers reduce selling pressure and cushion short-term speculative movements. This suggests that many investors are anticipating a rebound ahead of the ETF launch and expected institutional flows.
On the technical front, Dogecoin is trading around $0.143, trapped under a month-long bearish trend. The key support is at $0.142, while major resistance sits at $0.151. The bullish scenario depends entirely on the impact of the GDOG ETF: If institutional volumes arrive as expected, DOGE could break through $0.151 and target $0.165, thus invalidating the current bearish trend.
Conversely, if the enthusiasm around the ETF doesn’t materialize, Dogecoin could fall back toward major support at $0.130, representing a potential drop of 9%. An intermediate scenario would see the price remain stuck below $0.151 in a prolonged range. Monday morning’s volumes will be decisive for measuring institutional appetite and directing DOGE’s trajectory for the week.
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