A Milestone for Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have just reached a structural milestone. According to exclusive information from Fortune, Paradigm, one of the most influential venture capital firms in the crypto ecosystem, has been developing a trading terminal dedicated to prediction markets since late 2025. The project is led by Arjun Balaji, a partner at Paradigm, and exclusively targets professional traders and market-making participants. The firm has chosen not to comment officially.
This is not an isolated move. The combined monthly volume of Kalshi and Polymarket exceeded $22 billion in March 2026, with both platforms simultaneously reaching historical records. Institutional demand is present, but the professional infrastructure has been lacking. Paradigm is poised to fill this gap.
A Bloomberg Terminal for Event Contracts
The terminal is designed to provide sophisticated users with Bloomberg-like tools to trade, analyze, and route liquidity across a growing ecosystem of on-chain and regulated prediction platforms. The exchange remains the platform, while the terminal is what professionals use to trade efficiently across multiple venues simultaneously.
This is the key distinction that many analyses overlook. Paradigm is not looking to compete with Kalshi or Polymarket as a platform. The targeted positioning is that of a professional infrastructure layer that aggregates liquidity from these venues, narrows spreads, and optimizes execution for institutional-sized orders. In still fragmented markets where a large order can cause significant slippage, this infrastructure is sorely needed.
Paradigm has also considered launching an internal market-making desk for prediction markets, which would make the firm an active participant rather than just a builder of infrastructure. Simultaneously, it is working with researchers to explore the feasibility of creating predictive market indices, which would involve bundling multiple event contracts into a single tradable product, akin to the S&P 500 for stocks.
Kalshi at $22 Billion and Polymarket at $20 Billion: Liquidity Follows
Paradigm’s exposure to prediction markets is not new, but it has significantly deepened. In December 2025, Kalshi announced a $1 billion Series E funding round at a valuation of $11 billion, led by Paradigm and joined by Sequoia, Andreessen Horowitz, and ARK Invest, effectively doubling its valuation in less than two months. A subsequent round in March 2026 raised Kalshi’s valuation to $22 billion.
On the rival side, Polymarket is in discussions to raise funds at a valuation of around $20 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. A new venture capital fund entirely dedicated to prediction markets has also emerged, backed by the CEOs of both platforms.
These figures reveal something significant about the moment this sector is experiencing: institutional liquidity never follows infrastructure; it is the infrastructure that attracts liquidity. The creation of a professional terminal, a market-making desk, and potentially tradable indices represents precisely this maturation stage.
Intercontinental Exchange, the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested up to $2 billion in Polymarket and has become a global distributor of the platform’s event data for institutional investors. When the NYSE gets involved, the signal is clear.
Will Predictive Markets Redefine Crypto Trading This Year?
The regulatory risk remains the wildcard in this equation. A bill called the “Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026” aims to prohibit certain platforms under CFTC jurisdiction from listing specific events, with one of the main concerns being the prevention of insider trading by government officials. California Governor Gavin Newsom has already signed an executive order prohibiting state officials from betting on prediction markets.
Prediction market startups have attracted $3.7 billion in new capital, creating young billionaires at Polymarket and Kalshi as volumes have exploded. This is not a speculative bubble disconnected from fundamentals. It is a financial sector building its institutional rails, just as crypto markets did between 2020 and 2023 with ETFs and bank trading desks.
Our take: the Paradigm terminal is not a consumer product, and that is not the goal. It is an infrastructure that will allow capital from funds, trading desks, and market-makers to navigate these markets with the precision and speed they demand. If indices come to fruition, exposure to the sector will become accessible through a single tradable product, which would be the true trigger for a volume breakout comparable to what Bitcoin ETFs produced on exchanges in 2024.
Sources:
- Notnotstorm on X
- WuBlockchain on X
- BSCNews on X
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