Solana plunges below $100: Is this the end for SOL?

A Macroeconomic Crash: Bitcoin, AI and Gold Drag SOL Below $100

The fall of Solana is not happening in isolation. The entire financial market is trembling. Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness, dragging the majority of altcoins down with it. More surprisingly, safe haven assets and growth sectors are cracking simultaneously.

Gold, traditionally considered a safe haven asset, has corrected by 13% from its recent all-time high (ATH) of $5,600. Meanwhile, the artificial intelligence sector, which had been driving equity markets, is undergoing a severe purge. Giants like Unity, AppLovin and HubSpot have seen their valuations melt by more than 30% within 30 days. In this risk-off context, traders are liquidating their positions, and SOL, despite its technological robustness, is not spared.

Solana’s Fundamentals: A Hidden Bullish Divergence?

This is where the analysis becomes interesting for contrarian investors. While the token price is collapsing, activity on the blockchain Solana tells a completely different story. On-chain data reveals that network fees have surged by 81%, consolidating Solana’s position as the market’s vice-leader in terms of revenue generation and Total Value Locked (TVL).

This disconnect between price (Price action) and fundamental value suggests that the current sell-off is driven more by macroeconomic panic than by any intrinsic weakness in the project. For long-term investors, this type of divergence is often an accumulation signal, although the risk of short-term volatility remains extreme.

Technical Analysis: Will the $95 Support Hold?

From a chart perspective, the situation is critical but clear. SOL is currently testing the $95 – $100 zone. This level is crucial: it corresponds to the April 2025 lows and acts as a major support psychological level.

Solana is currently trying to maintain itself above its bullish trendline at $105. But a weekly close (this Sunday evening) below this threshold would be a major bearish signal that could push SOL towards $50, or even lower.

The order block between $97 and $108 could be the last rampart to prevent SOL from a vertiginous crash. The loss of the POC was already a major bearish signal.

• Immediate support: The $95 zone must absolutely hold. A clean breakdown below this level could open the door to a drop towards $75, or even $55 if capitulation accelerates.
• Resistances to watch: In case of a technical bounce, the bulls will need to reclaim $118 to validate a reversal. Then, the 50 and 100-day exponential moving averages (EMA), located respectively around $133 and $144, will constitute major obstacles.

• Indicators: The 3-day RSI is about to enter oversold territory for the first time since December 2022, during the cycle bottom.

This 3-day RSI in oversold territory can be a positive signal indicating a bottom. But caution remains warranted. We must wait for confirmation and not rush, as bottoms can take weeks to form. But if the $97 support gives way, SOL will take a bearish direction for the coming months.

The market is at a crossroads. If traders manage to defend $95 and the selling pressure on gold and tech subsides, a relief rally towards $120 is conceivable. 

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