Solana: Support Holds, But Falling Open Interest Raises Concerns

Solana (SOL) is pausing after a failed rally below the $88 resistance. Profit-taking has pulled the token back toward the $75 zone, a critical support level to watch closely. The simultaneous drop in open interest is raising questions about buyer conviction and the direction of the next move.

SOL Under Pressure: $88 Resistance Blocks the Rally

Solana has failed to confirm a breakout above $88, a level that concentrates a heavy cluster of sell orders. This rejection triggered a sharp correction, pulling the price back toward the $75 support, a zone that has already been tested multiple times over recent weeks.

On the indicators side, the RSI is hovering in neutral territory with no significant oversold signal, which leaves room for further downside before reaching historically attractive accumulation levels. The MACD is showing a bearish crossover on the daily chart, confirming short-term bearish pressure. Until SOL reclaims $88 on strong volume, the structure remains unfavorable.

Intermediate resistance sits around $82. A move back above this level would be an early sign of recovery, but it would not be enough to invalidate the dominant bearish bias. Traders are waiting for a convincing daily close before repositioning on the long side.

Open Interest Declining: Disengagement Signal or a Healthy Reset?

The drop in open interest on SOL is the most concerning signal of this market phase. A decline in open positions alongside falling prices points to a net liquidation of long positions, rather than a simple healthy retracement. Speculators are exiting the market, reducing the available liquidity needed to fuel the next bull run.

That said, this dynamic can also be read positively: a market that flushes out excess leverage creates the conditions for a more sustainable bounce. If open interest stabilizes around current levels and the price holds the $75 support, the groundwork will be in place for a bullish reconstruction. On-chain data will be key to validating this scenario.

Conversely, a continued decline in open interest combined with a bearish break below $75 would open the door toward deeper support zones around $65–$68, levels that have not been tested in several months.

SOL Scenarios: $65 or a Return to $95?

Bullish scenario: SOL consolidates above $75, open interest stabilizes, and buying volume gradually returns. A breakout above $88 confirmed by a weekly close would signal a resumption of the uptrend, with a price target toward $95–$100, a zone corresponding to former pre-ATH resistance levels.

Bearish scenario: A loss of $75 on a daily close would trigger a major technical sell signal. The next significant support sits between $65 and $68. In this case, both the MACD and the RSI would confirm an acceleration of the corrective phase, with a risk of extension toward $60 if broader crypto market sentiment deteriorates further.

The risk/reward ratio currently favors a cautious approach. SOL remains a high-potential asset over the medium term, but the short-term technical structure demands patience and confirmation before any aggressive repositioning.