Massive Solana short by whale: Will SOL crash further?

$4 Million Short Position: A Risky Bet or Visionary Move?

This operation hasn’t gone unnoticed. A newly created wallet deposited $4 million in USDC on Hyperliquid before immediately opening a short position on Solana with 3x leverage. Unlike typical hedging strategies, this move reflects a pure bearish conviction (naked short).

The use of moderate leverage (3x) suggests this trader isn’t looking for a quick gamble, but rather anticipates a sustained bearish trend without fearing immediate liquidation. This positioning comes as the broader market shows signs of weakness, creating an asymmetry where a few large players absorb downside risk while a crowd of smaller holders still hope for a rebound.

Currently, Solana (SOL) price is under intense pressure. Indeed, SOL dropped as low as $67 overnight, breaking its previous low of $78. Currently at $79, SOL is attempting a rebound. However, the inability to maintain above this level should extend the decline.

Technical Analysis: Is the Bearish Structure Confirming?

From a technical perspective, Solana remains trapped within a well-defined descending channel on the daily chart. The market structure is clearly bearish, marked by progressively lower highs and lows.

The recent rejection around the $120 zone, which corresponded to horizontal resistance and the channel’s midpoint, was the catalyst for this new leg down. The buyers’ inability to defend the psychological level of $100 reinforced sellers’ control.

Momentum indicators are flashing red:

• The daily RSI has slipped to 23, indicating an oversold market.
• However, no bullish divergence is visible at the moment, suggesting that selling pressure is sustained rather than capitulatory.

If the current zone doesn’t trigger a technical rebound (dead cat bounce), the next major target identified by the analysis sits at the historical support level of $80. Given the current price (already below $80 on some exchanges), the risk of a slide toward lower levels becomes tangible.

How Low Can Solana (SOL) Price Go?

The scenario is tense for bulls. To invalidate this bearish thesis, Solana would need to consolidate above $80 and reclaim $100.

Conversely, if the $80 support definitively breaks on a weekly close, the door would open toward liquidity zones unexplored for several months. SOL could fall back to $54 or even between $20 and $30 in the coming months as capitulation could worsen.

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