Stellar (XLM) price analysis: Will it crash 50% more or bounce back?

Can XLM bulls reignite the rally?

Currently trading around $0.160, Stellar (XLM) is going through a correction phase after failing to break through its recent resistances. Over the past 24 hours, the asset has shown stagnation (+0.02%), confirming a temporary loss of momentum in the rally. However, this price drop contrasts sharply with on chain activity. According to recent data, volume on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) increased significantly last week. This surge highlights growing organic participation and strong user engagement on the network.

Beyond the explosion in DEX volumes, the Stellar ecosystem is benefiting from growing adoption that maintains a long term bullish sentiment. Total Value Locked (TVL) has recently surged, proving that capital continues to flow in despite the price retracement. In terms of technical analysis, XLM is relying on solid support located around $0.147. As long as this zone is preserved, the structure remains favorable for a bounce. Conversely, the key resistance stands at $0.179.

But only a clean breakout of the HTF mid range at 0.22 could invalidate the bearish scenario and trigger a bull run toward its major 2 week order block. Indeed, the latter acts as a major stronghold.

However, this order block primarily indicates massive selling pressure from smart money. So the question is whether they will accumulate just as heavily at current levels.

From an HTF chart perspective, smart money has more incentive to wait for a return to the trendline, or even a downward break below this level to force capitulation.

Furthermore, XLM has been stuck in a range for over 9 years. The failed breakout in 2024, followed by this new failure and a 2 week order block, is anything but bullish in the long run. XLM could still suffer a slow capitulation lasting several years.

How high or low can the Stellar (XLM) price go?

The question is whether this correction is an accumulation opportunity before a new bullish impulse. If the bulls manage to defend the support and capitalize on the increased network activity, XLM could quickly retest the $0.180 zone. In the event of a massive breakout, the psychological threshold of $0.22 would become the next logical target for investors.

However, the crypto market remains unpredictable. If selling pressure intensifies and breaks current supports, the asset could slide lower, thereby prolonging its consolidation phase. A drop below $0.147 could bring the price back to its crucial trendline at $0.108. This level will be the most important one to watch in case of a correction.

Subsequently, two support levels should be monitored: the 3 day bullish order block zone between $0.0095 and $0.077 (which represents a drop of more than 50%) or the bottom of the historical range at $0.03 (a drop of over 70%).

Should you buy or not?

With its bearish order block and mid range at $0.22 acting as stubborn long term resistance, buying XLM certainly does not offer the best risk/reward ratio while other cryptos still have bullish momentum.

In conclusion, despite solid fundamentals — fast cross border payments, minimal fees and growing institutional adoption through banking partnerships —, Stellar is struggling to break out of its multi year range. Faced with better positioned competitors like XRP (backed by clear regulatory advances), Solana (an explosive DeFi ecosystem) or even Chainlink (dominant oracles), XLM offers a less attractive risk/reward ratio in the short and medium term.

Savvy investors will likely favor assets with stronger momentum as long as the decisive breakout above $0.22 is not confirmed. Patience remains key.

Sources:

• AMBCrypto
• TradingView

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