Massive TRUMP Unlocking Event
April 17, 2025, will mark a crucial milestone for the TRUMP token, with its first major unlocking from the vesting schedule. According to data shared by Messari, this event will involve the release of 40 million tokens, estimated at $413 million, representing 20% of the current circulating supply.
This unlocking comes at a time when the $TRUMP token has a market capitalization of $2.07 billion, with a circulating supply of 200 million tokens, according to CoinGecko data. However, the token has recently experienced a 11.2% decrease over the last 7 days, underperforming compared to the overall crypto market, which only saw a 6.1% decline during the same period.
Token unlocks are well-known events for their potential to impact the prices of cryptocurrencies. When a large amount of tokens is released into the market, the sudden increase in supply can lead to downward pressure on the price if demand does not keep up.
Is a Crash Imminent ?
A HackerNoon study, based on the analysis of 5,000 unlock events, shows that:
- Small unlocks (less than 1% increase in circulating supply) have a negligible impact on prices.
- Larger unlocks, like that of $TRUMP (20% of the circulating supply), tend to cause significant price drops.
- Projects that have already released over 70% of their total supply (which is not the case for $TRUMP yet) generally exhibit lower volatility and more stable prices.
With only 20% of the total supply of $TRUMP currently in circulation, this token is still in the early stage of its distribution schedule, making it especially vulnerable to fluctuations related to this unlock.
Possible Scenarios for $TRUMP
Many analysts, like Kaizen (@KAIZ3NS on X), anticipate significant selling pressure. Kaizen stated that he plans to “short” $TRUMP before the unlock, anticipating a potential drop to zero. This view is reinforced by the fact that teams or early investors holding these unlocked tokens may seek to sell to realize profits, especially after a recent 11.2% price decline.
X user, @DeFiant_Marine, also commented, “I would be tempted to short, but in this market, nothing makes sense… I bet it will rise nonetheless.” This sentiment illustrates the uncertainty surrounding this event.
However, the crypto market is known to defy expectations. As highlighted by @sgleahy in response to Kaizen, TRUMP token traders may not be solely motivated by profit maximization. Some investors may seek to gain favor within the ecosystem or support the project for ideological reasons, which could mitigate the downside impact of the unlock.
Furthermore, if demand for the memecoin TRUMP remains strong – notably with increasing trading volumes ($324 million in 24 hours, up by 2.4% according to CoinGecko) – the market could absorb some of this new supply without causing a crash.
But this will also largely depend on market conditions. Recently, listing announcements (such as popcat) no longer generate the same interest.
As April 17 approaches, all eyes will be on $TRUMP. Will this unlock be the trigger for a crash, or will the market surprise once again? One thing is certain: volatility will be present.
Should You Buy TRUMP ?
Some analysts expect a forthcoming TRUMP rebound. In the event of a Bitcoin rise, TRUMP could quickly target its 50-day moving average at $11, representing an 8% increase. However, a break below the support at $9.86 would initiate a new decline.
Here is a practical guide to buy TRUMP in case of a bullish rebound:
- Create a Bitget account
Visit Bitget’s official site and sign up with your email or phone number. - Verify your identity (KYC)
Complete the KYC verification by submitting an ID and proof of address to access the platform. - Add funds
In the “Deposit” section, fund your wallet with cryptocurrencies (USDT, BTC, etc.) or via fiat (credit card, bank transfer). Follow the instructions to finalize the deposit. - Access the market
Go to “Spot Market” or “Trading”, search for “TRUMP”, and select the TRUMP/USDT pair.
