US Bitcoin ETFs experience massive outflows as the Fear and Greed index plunges to 11, indicating extreme market fear. Amid this panic, whales are quietly accumulating massive positions, signaling a structural shift in crypto market dynamics.
While the Fear and Greed Index shows 11 points out of 100, historically correlated with market bottoms, major players in the sector are adopting a strategy radically opposed to the prevailing sentiment. On-chain data reveals impressive accumulation movements of Bitcoin and ETH that contrast sharply with retail investor retreat.
A whale acquired 10,275 ETH at $3,032 for $31.16 million USDT in the 24 hours preceding November 17, according to OnchainLens. Over a five-day period, this same address accumulated 13,612 ETH for $41.89 million at an average price of $3,077, demonstrating strong conviction despite the volatility.
Permanent Bitcoin holders, those wallets that have never recorded any outflows, are orchestrating what CryptoQuant calls the largest multi-cycle accumulation wave. Demand from these long-term holders has risen from 159,000 BTC to 345,000 BTC, marking substantial absorption even during the correction phase. This behavioral divergence underscores a profound shift in market structure.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, however nuances this dynamic by specifying that the current decline reflects more of a rotation of coins between long-term holders rather than a genuine injection of fresh capital. According to him, this configuration doesn’t necessarily herald a new bear market, but neither does it correspond to the classic buying opportunity scenario sought by retail investors.
Beyond ETF flows and on-chain behaviors, several macroeconomic factors contribute to maintaining pressure on risk assets. The Federal Reserve has postponed its interest rate cuts while global central banks maintain their monetary tightening policy. The U.S. Treasury liquidity contraction creates additional headwinds for Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
Technical signals reinforce this short-term caution. Bitcoin has crossed the 20% decline threshold from its ATH, officially triggering a correction market. The 50-day moving average recently moved below the 200-day moving average, forming a “death cross” that technical analysts are closely monitoring.
Nevertheless, this correction occurs in a structural context radically different from previous crypto winters. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan now accept Bitcoin as collateral for loans, confirming its progressive integration into the traditional financial system. This institutional infrastructure offers a deeper liquidity cushion compared to previous bear cycles.
Frank Holmes, Executive Chairman of HIVE Digital Technologies, illustrates this long-term conviction by maintaining his mining and holding strategy despite volatility. He estimates that structural macroeconomic trends, notably high sovereign debt and persistent geopolitical tensions, remain favorable to Bitcoin over an extended time horizon.
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