Bitcoin has narrowly escaped a potential collapse by bouncing back above $103,700, yet technical signals remain bearish. Hodlers are still selling, money flow remains negative, and a death cross looms ahead. The question now is not whether Bitcoin has averted the worst, but if it can truly navigate out of the danger zone without a strong 12% rally.
Technical analysis of bitcoin through the daily chart reveals a concerning situation. The 20-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) are dangerously approaching a bearish crossover, commonly known as a “death cross” in crypto terminology. This technical signal appears when a short-term moving average crosses below a long-term moving average, generally indicating a weakening bullish momentum.
Recent history gives reason for caution. On November 4, a similar bearish crossover between the 50-day and 100-day EMAs triggered a sharp 10% drop. Traders therefore remain vigilant in the face of this new formation, which could precipitate another wave of selling pressure.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a key indicator for measuring capital inflows or outflows, remains stuck in negative territory. Since late October, the CMF has not crossed the zero line and remains trapped below a bearish trendline drawn from October 4. This stagnation clearly indicates that large portfolios, the “Whales“, remain on the sidelines. Without this influx of fresh liquidity, any rally attempt risks quickly running out of steam.
One of the most concerning signals for the health of the current rally comes from the behavior of long-term holders. The Net Position Change of hodlers, an on-chain metric that measures accumulation or distribution by older wallets, displays a negative trend. Between November 2 and 5, this indicator fell from 43,810 BTC to 52,250 BTC, a decrease of 19.2%.
In practical terms, this means that long-term investors sold an additional 8,400 BTC during the rebound phase. This behavior contrasts with historical bullish recoveries, where hodlers typically increase their positions. Their reluctance to accumulate reveals a lack of conviction in the sustainability of the upward movement.
This continued distribution by strong hands suggests that it is primarily short-term traders who are driving the current movement, without the support of hodlers, traditionally the solid foundation of the market. The recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to any volatility shock.
For Bitcoin to definitively shift into bullish mode, several technical obstacles must be overcome. The first immediate resistance level sits at $105,600. A daily close above this would confirm the rejection of the support at $103,000 and open the path toward higher levels.
The decisive level remains $116,500, about 12% above the current price. A breakout above this level would invalidate the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern and signal a new bullish phase. This zone corresponds to a confluence of major technical resistances.
Conversely, a failure to maintain $103,000 would quickly expose Bitcoin to a retest of $98,900. If this support gives way with a daily close below, the neckline of the head-and-shoulders pattern would be broken, activating a theoretical target toward $83,100, representing a correction of approximately 20% from current levels. This scenario remains plausible as long as indicators of money flow and investor conviction show no improvement.
For now, Bitcoin is navigating an area of maximum uncertainty, where each price movement can quickly shift in one direction or the other. Do automatic DCA on BTC with this new bot!
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