The US debt has hit a record $38 trillion, surpassing the country's annual GDP by 31%. Could Bitcoin be the answer to this fiscal crisis? From mathematical calculations to market realities, explore this bold theory.
The math seems simple: To repay the US national debt of $38 trillion using all 19.93 million BTC in circulation, each Bitcoin would need to be worth approximately $1.9 million, already a colossal figure compared to the current price around $108,000. But the government only holds 326,373 BTC, primarily seized during criminal investigations. If these reserves alone were used to settle the debt, Bitcoin’s price would need to reach $116.5 million per unit, pushing the total market capitalization to more than double the global GDP, a liquidity impossible for the current market to absorb.
Donald Trump revived this idea during his campaign, suggesting that Bitcoin could become a tool to reduce the American tax burden. The creation of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, supported by Senator Cynthia Lummis, would aim to strengthen the dollar’s credibility by maintaining auditable and deflationary BTC alongside Treasury bonds, similar to gold in the past. The concept hinges on countering the growing debt, which increases by $500 billion monthly, or $23 billion daily according to the Kobeissi Letter.
However, this strategy faces structural market limitations: Even at $10 million per BTC, the 326,373 American-held units would only cover $3.2 trillion, less than 9% of the total debt. The gap between political rhetoric and technical feasibility remains enormous, and any attempt at massive liquidation would cause the market to collapse instantly, exacerbating liquidity constraints and financial disruption risks.
Beyond theoretical calculations, this reflection exposes a fundamental asymmetry: Governments create liabilities infinitely faster than markets can produce credible collateral. Each trillion added to the debt reinforces Bitcoin’s narrative of limited supply versus perpetual monetary expansion.
Institutional interest in BTC continues to intensify through spot ETFs, corporate reserves like MicroStrategy, and now discussions around sovereign reserves. For investors, Bitcoin has evolved from a speculative curiosity to a macro hedge against a system where the dollar itself no longer seems fixed. Its strict limit of 21 million units starkly contrasts with a fiscal policy based on unlimited debt.
The $38 trillion US debt will never disappear thanks to Bitcoin, but paradoxically strengthens its value proposition. In a world where Washington adds the equivalent of a small country in debt each month, programmable scarcity becomes the most precious asset. Not to repay the debt, but to protect those who anticipate its consequences.
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