Institutional investors' sentiment towards Ethereum is wavering as on-chain indicators and bearish positioning in derivatives accumulate. Whales, typically bullish, are now taking a defensive stance, potentially hindering ETH from surpassing the $4000 mark. Technical signals point towards an extended consolidation phase rather than a bullish breakout.
Open interest on Ethereum futures contracts has reached record levels while displaying a persistent negative funding rate. This technical combination suggests that short positions currently dominate the order book. Professional traders are anticipating a correction rather than a continuation of the bullish trend, which weighs heavily on short-term prospects.
Ethereum options for March and April expirations show a significant premium on puts compared to calls. The implied volatility skew leans decidedly bearish, with a gap not seen since the turbulence of last November. This technical configuration indicates that market makers and hedge funds are massively protecting themselves against a potential crash.
Trading volumes on decentralized derivatives platforms like dYdX and GMX confirm this trend. The seller-to-buyer ratio stands at 1.6, a level historically associated with distribution phases before major corrections. Whales are using these instruments to hedge their massive spot positions, revealing their lack of conviction in an immediate breakout toward $4,000.
Onchain flow analysis reveals that more than 280,000 ETH have been deposited on centralized exchanges over the past seven days. This net movement toward trading platforms constitutes a classic bearish technical signal, as long-term holders typically prepare the ground for significant profit-taking.
The number of daily active addresses on the Ethereum network has stagnated for three weeks despite relatively sustained DeFi activity. This divergence between price and actual network adoption constitutes a major red flag for technical analysts. Historically, sustainable rallies are accompanied by organic growth in network usage, which is not currently the case.
Holder profitability metrics show that 73% of ETH addresses are in profit at current levels. This high ratio mechanically creates considerable potential selling pressure. Whales, aware of this dynamic, are adopting a wait-and-see strategy by consolidating their positions without seeking to push the price toward new highs.
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