XRP struggles to regain momentum, dropping below the $3 mark as institutional holders shed millions of tokens. On-chain data shows strong selling pressure amid a decline in futures open interest. The coming days will be crucial to see if the altcoin finds stable support or dives to new lows.
The XRP market is experiencing a phase of massive distribution orchestrated by major players. On-chain data highlights a concerning phenomenon. Wallets holding between 1 and 10 million XRP have liquidated approximately 440 million tokens over the past 30 days. This selling wave is accompanied by a net influx of more than 320 million XRP to centralized platforms in just the past week.
Exchange reserves have reached levels close to their nine-month highs. This historically bearish signal suggests that holders are positioning themselves to convert their assets to cash. This accumulation of tokens on centralized platforms typically precedes negative price movements. It reflects an imminent selling intention rather than a long-term holding strategy.
The timing of this distribution coincides with a period of regulatory uncertainty in the United States regarding spot ETFs for XRP. The absence of a clear macro catalyst and BNB overtaking XRP for the third place in terms of market capitalization amplify the bearish sentiment currently weighing on Ripple’s asset.
On the derivatives front, the signals are equally concerning. Open interest on XRP futures contracts has plummeted to about $8.85 billion after briefly crossing the $9 billion threshold. This contraction of capital committed to future positions demonstrates a progressive disengagement of institutional traders and a general decline in bullish conviction.
Liquidation data reveals a glaring imbalance. More than $11 million in long positions were wiped out in a single session, compared to only $2.4 million on the short side. This 5:1 liquidation ratio against bulls confirms that the market remains vulnerable to further downside as long as spot demand doesn’t return significantly.
Technical analysis reinforces this bearish outlook. The RSI oscillates between 30 and 40 on short timeframes, a zone indicating persistent selling pressure without signaling extreme oversold conditions that could trigger an immediate rebound. The MACD leans decisively downward, suggesting that momentum remains firmly anchored on the sellers’ side.
From a chartist perspective, XRP is evolving within a descending triangle structure. This typically bearish configuration requires a decisive break to determine the next direction. The critical level to watch is between $2.68 and $2.70. A weekly close below this support would open the way to a measured bearish projection toward $2.22. That’s a potential drop of approximately 20% from current prices ($2.80-$2.83).
To the upside, immediate resistance is positioned in the $2.92–$3.00 zone. To invalidate the bearish scenario and trigger a bullish dynamic, the bulls will need to recapture the $3.15 level with convincing volumes. A breakout above this threshold would shift technical targets toward $3.60, then potentially $4.50.
The key resistance is located between $2.92 and $3.00. A breakthrough above $3.15 with solid volumes would revive the bullish momentum, with targets at $3.60 and then $4.50.
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