Why XRP could plunge to $1.27: Analysis and price predictions

A Historic Accumulation Record: Whales Are Buying the Dip

On-chain data is clear: interest in XRP has never been stronger among retail investors. According to recent analysis from Santiment, the network has recorded a new all-time high with 5.66 million addresses holding less than 100 tokens. This buying frenzy shows that overall sentiment remains deeply bullish for the long term, despite the current price stagnation.

But small holders aren’t the only ones taking advantage of this retracement. After months of distribution in late 2025, whales (wallets holding more than 100,000 XRP) have returned to net accumulation phase since the beginning of March. This comeback of institutional capital has actually enabled the token to validate a rally of 21%, propelling the price from $1.30 to $1.60 before taking a pause.

However, this massive buying pressure is hitting a formidable wall of selling. The $1.60 level is acting as major resistance, blocking any attempt at a breakout. In fact, trader DrProfit closed his XRP long position last Saturday after predicting this rally. In short, smart money seems to be reducing risk as macroeconomic tensions return.

Why Isn’t XRP’s Price Exploding Given These Fundamentals?

While on-chain metrics are in the green, the macroeconomic and technical context is dampening buyers’ enthusiasm. The crypto market as a whole is experiencing a slight cooldown, with Bitcoin struggling to maintain its support around $70,000. Current geopolitical tensions are pushing traders to reduce their risk exposure, which keeps XRP in a rather bearish short-term dynamic.

Yet, fundamental catalysts are accumulating behind the scenes. The XRP Ledger has just crossed the symbolic milestone of one billion dollars in tokenized assets (RWA), confirming its institutional utility. Additionally, Evernorth, which manages a billion-dollar crypto treasury, is preparing for its IPO, which could inject massive liquidity into the Ripple ecosystem.

Despite these announcements, the market is waiting for a bottom on Bitcoin. Eyes are turned toward the United States, where potential adoption of the CLARITY Act could reclassify XRP and pave the way for record inflows via ETFs. Meanwhile, the token remains stuck in its consolidation channel, with trading algorithms selling every bounce toward the supply zone at $1.60.

How Far Could XRP Fall in This Tense Context?

From a technical analysis perspective, the current configuration is leaning bearish. Indeed, the liquidation map shows a cluster at $1.30.

The next level to watch if BTC doesn’t maintain $68,000 is located at $1.27, a major VAL that could offer a short-term bounce. Currently at $1.39, the POC zone at $1.41 becomes a new critical resistance. This resistance is similar to Bitcoin’s $68,000. As long as XRP is below it, $1.27 is the next target.

While fundamentals have never been stronger and accumulation is reaching peaks, price compression seems to be nearing its end. With the imminent arrival of new regulations and growing institutional appetite, will XRP be able to resist and maintain itself above $1?

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