The XRP/USDT has broken through all major support levels and is now navigating a critical technical zone. Despite sellers controlling the overall trend, shorter timeframes indicate signs of exhaustion. As XRP teeters between capitulation and stabilization attempts, close scrutiny is crucial to decipher the conflicting signals impacting this pair.
The picture on the daily timeframe is clear: XRP is trading at $1.94, well below all its major exponential moving averages. The 20-day EMA sits at 2.22, the 50-day EMA at 2.41, and the 200-day EMA at 2.62, reflecting structural bearish pressure with no tangible signs of reversal. The daily RSI at 31.36 is approaching oversold territory, suggesting a gradual exhaustion of selling momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory with a slightly bearish histogram, confirming decelerating momentum. The Bollinger Bands indicate that XRP is trading at relative oversold levels, with a daily ATR of 0.16, signaling contained volatility.
The macro context weighs heavily on altcoins. The total crypto market cap is stagnating around $2.98 trillion, down slightly by 0.14%, while Bitcoin dominance has climbed to 56.8%, signaling a defensive rotation toward the safe haven asset at the expense of altcoins. The Fear and Greed Index stands at 11, in extreme fear, illustrating maximum risk aversion and defensive positioning by investors. Historically, these phases can precede medium-term inflection points, but only when capitulation is complete and sellers have exhausted their ammunition.
In this fragile macro environment, any XRP bounce risks being limited by early profit-taking and a lack of buyer conviction. Institutional investors are prioritizing capital preservation, leaving second-tier altcoins in a prolonged wait-and-see zone, and bullish moves are likely to remain timid and fragile as long as macro conditions and structural selling pressure persist.
The central pivot level at 1.93 currently represents the dividing line between stabilization attempts and continued bearish pressure. A clear break below 1.90 would confirm renewed selling pressure and open the path toward new lows. Conversely, a sustained break above the resistance at 1.97 with hourly close confirmation could initiate a corrective bounce toward the Bollinger Bands midline at 2.24.
However, every bullish move will encounter dense resistance zones materialized by the descending EMAs at 2.22, 2.41, and 2.62. These levels likely concentrate pending sell orders from holders looking to limit their losses. A genuine trend reversal would require a daily close above the 20-day EMA accompanied by a bullish divergence on the MACD, conditions that are not yet met.
Tactical traders will therefore favor sell-on-rally strategies toward resistance levels rather than premature buying. Long-term investors would be wise to wait until more robust confirmation signals emerge, particularly a complete reset of momentum indicators and an improvement in macro sentiment.
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