The ETH/BTC ratio nears a crucial support zone between 0.032 and 0.034, sparking debate: is the altseason about to kick off or will Bitcoin maintain its dominance? Ethereum's next move could shape the entire crypto market trajectory.
According to Benjamin Cowen, a respected on-chain analyst, the current market phase represents only a “prologue” before the real expansion of altseason. His thesis rests on two essential conditions: Ethereum (ETH) must break through and crucially maintain the $5,000 threshold as new support. This dynamic would necessarily imply that Bitcoin (BTC) also establishes a new all-time high (ATH).
Cowen reminds us that during each previous bull cycle, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) typically increases when BTC climbs toward new highs. It’s only after this dominance peak that capital truly begins to flow massively toward altcoins.
“The only way to get an ALT season is for BTC.D to increase first when BTC reaches new highs,” the analyst emphasizes.
Analyst AG nuances this view, however, by pointing out that the Bitcoin dominance peak doesn’t necessarily coincide with its price peak. Historically, BTC.D tends to drop by about 30% from its highest point once Bitcoin reaches its ATH. According to AG, the cycle peak could already be reached around 65% dominance by June 2025, which would leave the door open for a massive rotation toward altcoins, even if Bitcoin consolidates.
Currently, BTC.D approaches 59%, while the Altcoin Season Index has dropped below 75 points. These indicators confirm that altcoins are significantly underperforming and fuel fears of a significant delay in the altseason. Some analysts even suggest that the true “alt season” is currently happening not in crypto tokens, but in stocks of publicly traded crypto companies.
💡 Strategic investors know it: This transition phase is the key moment to accumulate altcoins before the market takes off. Take advantage now on Bitget with an exclusive bonus!
CryptoBullet, an analyst known for his market cycle studies, directly challenges Cowen’s thesis. He cites historical data showing that Ethereum advanced by +88% in December 2017 and +79% in April 2021, shortly after Bitcoin reached its peak. These performances prove that ETH can generate powerful market momentum without waiting for new BTC growth.
Analyst Ted takes a more cautious position but identifies several notable bullish signals. The ETH/BTC ratio is currently testing the 0.032-0.034 support zone, a level that has historically triggered powerful rebounds during previous cycles. Maintaining this support could signal the beginning of a trend reversal favorable to altcoins.
Ted also emphasizes that the total market capitalization of altcoins (excluding stablecoins) remains 20% below its all-time high. This lag suggests significant catch-up potential exists, provided BTC and ETH show sustained bullish momentum. Moreover, signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) regarding a potential end to quantitative tightening (QT) could create a favorable liquidity environment for risk assets, particularly altcoins.
FANG, another influential voice in the crypto community, displays more marked optimism. He notes that this is the first bullish trend in the ETH/BTC ratio in four years and insists that such a technical pattern cannot be ignored. According to him, seeing Ethereum above $5,000 is only a matter of time.
On the same subject:
Passionate about cryptocurrencies since 2019, I cover the latest news through clear and accessible articles. My goal is to make crypto understandable for everyone, with reliable and well-researched content.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.
Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
