As Bitcoin aims to consolidate below $123,000 post its recent all-time high, Aster (ASTER) garners trader interest. Currently testing a key support level within a chart pattern, Aster's short-term trajectory hangs in the balance. It's time to delve into this setup.
First and foremost, the crypto market is currently navigating through a consolidation phase after witnessing an impressive performance from Bitcoin, which reached a new all-time high of $126,000 in early October 2025. The world’s leading cryptocurrency now trades around $122,000, while Ethereum remains stagnant near $4,450. This climate of indecision is also reflected in several altcoins, including Aster (ASTER), which has recorded a decline of 4% and now finds itself at a major technical inflection point.
Analysis of the 4-hour chart reveals that ASTER is evolving within a triangle pattern, a classic formation that typically indicates a phase of equilibrium between buyers and sellers before a decisive directional breakout. The recent correction has brought the price back to the lower boundary of this structure, around $1.7690, a level where buyers seem to be actively defending their positions.
At the time of writing, ASTER is trading around $1.86, a strategic positioning just above the uptrend line that forms the triangle’s support. The token nevertheless remains under pressure from the 50-period moving average at $1.9189, which acts as the immediate resistance. This MA represents a crucial psychological and technical threshold for validating any bullish recovery scenario.
The bullish scenario takes shape if ASTER manages to maintain the ascending support line and, more importantly, close several candles above the 50-hour moving average. This technical reconquest would likely trigger a movement toward the descending resistance of the triangle, currently positioned around $2.10-$2.15 depending on temporal evolution.
A confirmed breakout above this upper triangle resistance would pave the way to a measured target calculated from the maximum height of the formation, approximately $2.88. This level would represent a potential gain of around 56% from current prices and correspond to a historical resistance zone identified on higher timeframes.
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Conversely, a loss of the triangle’s lower support with significant volume would invalidate this bullish setup. This bearish scenario could lead ASTER toward lower support zones, potentially around $1.50-$1.55, delaying any prospect of short-term recovery. Traders will particularly monitor the RSI and MACD for a bullish divergence that would confirm buyer resilience.
Beyond the chart pattern, several technical indicators deserve particular attention in the current analysis of ASTER. Volume constitutes the key element for validating any triangle breakout. A bullish breakout would ideally require volume at least 50% higher than the average of recent sessions to confirm buyer conviction.
Furthermore, the VPFR indicates a liquidity vacuum below $1.5. In other words, a breakdown of the $1.5 support could create a wave of panic and potentially a crash down to $1.3, or even $1 or as low as $0.8. It will therefore be necessary to wait for confirmation of consolidation before entering in case of a downward triangle breakout.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently in the neutral zone around 45-50, leaving room for progression before reaching an overbought condition. But also room for downward movement. A correction of the 4H RSI into oversold territory is probable.
To conclude, the overall market structure remains equally determinant for ASTER. The correlation with Bitcoin and Ethereum implies that a general recovery in crypto sentiment would greatly facilitate a bullish breakout from the triangle. Conversely, a new wave of correction on the majors would inevitably weigh on altcoins like ASTER.
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Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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