Bitcoin and Its 4-Year Moving Average: Here’s Where the Real Market Bottom Lies

Bitcoin has been undergoing a sharp correction since the start of the week, shedding more than 5% in 24 hours and settling around $63,600. As market sentiment turns decidedly bearish, one historical indicator is resurfacing across on-chain analyses.

The 4-year moving average of BTC, rarely discussed during bull cycles, is reclaiming its significance during capitulation phases. And what it is signaling today deserves the attention of every serious investor.

Several analysts agree on a critical support zone between $50,000 and $60,000 — though signals diverge on just how deep the coming decline could go.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Moving Average: A Historical Accumulation Signal

Analyst Adam Livingston has highlighted an indicator that rarely makes headlines but has proven remarkably effective across long cycles: the Bitcoin 4-year moving average, currently sitting at $60,000. At this level, BTC is trading just 22.75% above that average — a historically narrow gap.

Livingston notes that across all available data, only 18.5% of valid trading days have recorded a smaller deviation than what we are seeing today. In other words, 81.5% of the time, Bitcoin was more expensive relative to this moving average. This low percentile represents, in his view, a high-quality accumulation zone.

Historical data supports this thesis: buying BTC within this same relative undervaluation percentile would have turned $10,000 into approximately $56,600, compared to just $40,200 through daily DCA over the same time frame. A risk/reward ratio that explains why this zone consistently attracts long-term accumulators.

Massive Selling Pressure: On-Chain Signals Keep Piling Up

Beyond the moving average, on-chain data confirms significant selling pressure. Analyst Ali Martinez reports that 54,000 BTC were transferred to exchanges over the past week — a spike in available supply that mechanically amplifies short-term downside pressure and has contributed to pushing the price back toward the lower end of the $60,000 range.

Martinez also highlights that the breakdown below $72,000 has weakened the broader market structure. Drawing on MVRV price bands (Market Value to Realized Value), he identifies the next major support zone between $50,000 and $54,000 — implying an additional downside risk of roughly 15 to 20% from current levels.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are adding another layer of pressure: they are currently recording 13 consecutive days of net outflows, a clear signal of institutional disengagement that is weighing on overall sentiment. Analyst Bluntz goes even further, anticipating a wick below $58,000 before any structural recovery, based on his reading of daily candle closes.

$60,000 or $50,000: Two Scenarios, One Cycle Logic

The two scenarios are not necessarily contradictory. The $60,000 level — coinciding with the 4-year moving average — represents a first-rate technical and on-chain support, historically associated with pre-bull accumulation phases. This is the zone where strong hands tend to absorb supply from panic sellers.

But if selling pressure from ETFs and exchange inflows persists, a temporary breach of this level remains plausible. In that case, the $50,000–$54,000 zone identified by the MVRV bands would serve as the next safety net — a level that Bitcoin has not revisited since the beginning of the current bull cycle.

What both analyses share is the conviction that Bitcoin remains in a long-term bull cycle, and that corrections of this magnitude have, historically, consistently offered favorable entry points for patient investors. On-chain data is not signaling broad capitulation — it is signaling redistribution.