Bitcoin is back in the green heading into the Fourth of July, driven by an unexpected macroeconomic catalyst. Weaker-than-expected US employment figures were enough to calm markets and revive appetite for risk assets.
For ten consecutive days, spot Bitcoin ETFs had recorded net outflows. That streak has now been broken — a signal institutional investors had been watching closely.
With macro pressure easing and capital flows returning to regulated products, the crypto market appears to be finding a fragile but real equilibrium. Here is what the data reveals.
A Disappointing Jobs Report That Is Great News for Crypto Bulls
The latest US labor market data came in below expectations, signaling a slowdown in the American economy. For financial markets, this kind of reading is paradoxically positive: a weakening economy reduces pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates elevated, and may even open the door to a first rate cut.
Bitcoin responded positively to this macro narrative, consolidating above $61,000 after several sessions under pressure. Ethereum, for its part, is holding firm above $1,700, a key technical level acting as short-term support. The correlation between risk assets and monetary policy expectations remains strong — and this rebound is yet another illustration of that dynamic.
Futures markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate cut before the end of 2025. This shift in expectations represents a meaningful tailwind for speculative assets, with crypto leading the charge. Implied volatility remains elevated, however, suggesting traders are not yet betting on a sustained uptrend.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs End Ten-Day Outflow Streak: A Signal Worth Watching
After ten consecutive days of net outflows, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows. This reversal, even if modest, is significant: it reflects a renewed interest from institutional investors who had temporarily reduced their exposure amid macro uncertainty.
Spot ETFs, launched in early 2024, have become an essential barometer of institutional sentiment. When flows reverse after a prolonged streak of outflows, it can indicate that the market has absorbed selling pressure and that buyers are regaining control. This is not yet a trend confirmation, but it is a signal traders are closely monitoring in their market sentiment models.
The combination of favorable macro data and returning ETF inflows creates a more constructive technical environment for Bitcoin in the near term. The $61,000 level is now acting as immediate support, while the resistance zone to watch sits around $63,000 to $65,000 — an area where several moving averages converge on the daily charts.
A Market in Wait-and-See Mode: Between July 4th and Upcoming Catalysts
With the Fourth of July holiday approaching in the United States, liquidity is mechanically reduced across markets. Lower volumes can amplify price moves in both directions — a setup experienced traders approach with caution. In this low-liquidity environment, Bitcoin holding above $61,000 is in itself a sign of resilience.
The key catalysts to watch in the coming sessions include US inflation data (CPI), the Fed minutes, and the trajectory of ETF flows over the next few trading days. If net inflows are confirmed over several consecutive sessions, this could represent the signal of a more structural return of institutional demand — and potentially support a test of higher resistance levels before the end of July.
