Bitcoin Heading Towards $100,000?
Bitcoin (BTC) is flirting with $95,000 after an impressive rebound following a brief correction triggered by disappointing US economic data. Fueled by opportunistic buyers and macroeconomic resilience, BTC could soon revisit the $100,000 mark.
Indeed, Bitcoin dropped to $92,910 after the release of US GDP data, revealing an unexpected -0.3% contraction in the first quarter, contrary to the expected +0.3% growth.
However, within hours, BTC bounced back to hit $95,000, a move mirroring the slight recovery of Dow Jones (+0.35%) and S&P 500 (+0.15%) on the same day.
This resilience reflects renewed investor confidence, especially from “dip buyers” who seized the opportunity presented by this temporary dip.
This rebound can be explained by several factors. Firstly, crypto traders believe that the GDP contraction might be an isolated event, linked to an increase in imports ahead of the customs tariffs announced by President Donald Trump on 90 countries.
Additionally, strong financial results from major US companies, as highlighted by trader Skew on X, have bolstered appetite for risky assets, including Bitcoin. Finally, the prospect of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) supports the bullish sentiment.
Fed and Interest Rates: A Catalyst for Bitcoin
The likelihood of a Fed interest rate cut for the June 18, 2025 meeting has increased from 59.8% to 63.8% between April 29 and April 30, according to CME FedWatch. Historically, periods of monetary easing, marked by rate cuts and an increase in money supply, have favored Bitcoin surges. In 2020, for example, massive post-Covid liquidity injections propelled BTC from $10,000 to nearly $69,000 in 2021.
This anticipation of a more dovish Fed comes amid recession fears, with a 67% probability for 2025 according to Polymarket, and consumer confidence at its lowest since May 2020. Paradoxically, these macroeconomic uncertainties enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a safe haven asset, often likened to digital gold.
Technical Analysis : Heading Towards $100,000 ?
Technically, Bitcoin is currently testing a key resistance zone around $95,500. According to Skew, spot buying flows are dominated by passive buyers, with normalization of financing rates after closing short positions. If BTC manages to sustainably surpass $95,500, analysts agree that a quick return towards $100,000 is likely.
However, risks remain. According to Zoral, Bitcoin could turn bearish in the short term around $97,000. Many shorts are positioned between $96,000 and $97,200. He suggests that the SP500 could experience a recession until June, potentially causing Bitcoin to drop back to $73,000 in the meantime.
Bitcoin must surpass $99,500 to continue its upward trend. Conversely, a break below the $86,000 zone will likely seal BTC’s fate for a new low.
Between these, $96,600 is a crucial Point of Control (POC) for BTC. The POC indicates significant trading volumes recorded in this price range.
In short, Bitcoin is gearing up to face its final and perhaps strongest resistance. It is worth noting that BTC is starting to form a bearish divergence on the 12H and 4H RSI.
Moreover, the US employment report on May 2 could influence the stock markets and consequently, cryptocurrencies. A disappointing figure could rekindle recession fears, while a strong report would boost investor confidence. Additionally, March’s PCE price index at 2.3% versus the expected 2.2%, and a GDP price index at 3.7% indicate persistent inflation, complicating Fed decisions.
Despite macroeconomic turbulence, BTC remains an essential asset, capable of benefiting from economic uncertainties and expansionary monetary policies. If $98,500 is breached, the $100,000 mark may just be a stepping stone towards more ambitious highs, like the $200,000 predicted by some analysts by late 2025.
