Bitcoin to $250,000? Peter Brandt predicts a crash before the surge

Brandt sets the market straight: No bottom before October 2026

Bitcoin is currently trading in a range between $78,200 and $80,300, driven in part by the rebound following Trump’s “Project Freedom” announcement regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Despite this geopolitical catalyst, the underlying structure remains fragile according to Peter Brandt, a veteran trader with nearly 50 years of experience in the futures markets.

Brandt projects that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2029, but only after a prolonged market bottom phase that could last until September or October 2026. His reasoning is based on the four-year halving cycle, in which bull markets typically peak 16 to 18 months after a halving and hit a bottom about a year after the peak.

For investors looking to understand crypto cycles before taking a position, this analysis should be seriously integrated into any medium-term strategy.

Ascending channel and a deceptive structure for the bulls

Brandt points out that Bitcoin’s current formation in a bullish parallel channel indicates a controlled upward movement, not a parabolic recovery. For BTC to begin a trajectory toward new all-time highs, it would need to break out of this channel to the upside with significant volume. This signal has not yet appeared at this stage.

On-chain data confirms this reading: BTC’s return to $80,000 is primarily fueled by inflows into US spot ETFs and leveraged long positions, rather than broad spot buying. The April rally was driven almost exclusively by demand for perpetual futures while spot demand contracted, a pattern historically associated with fragile and easily reversible gains.

Crypto traders who follow technical levels know that the $80,513 zone (0.382 Fibonacci) represents the first decisive test. Without a convincing daily close above this threshold, every bounce remains suspect.

$250,000 in 2029: Brandt’s halving scenario

A return to the $40,000-$50,000 range in the worst-case scenario, therefore, before soaring to all-time highs. Brandt’s analytical framework rests on three pillars: halving cycles as the main price driver, an investable bottom expected in September-October 2026, and a potential cycle peak between $300,000 and $500,000 in 2029, which is roughly 18 months after the next halving in April 2028.

The Bitcoin network is currently more than 50% through its ongoing halving cycle. With an issuance of 3.125 BTC per block and an inflation rate below 1%, price performance remains more modest than in previous cycles, up roughly 15% since the April 2024 halving. This observation of diminishing returns argues precisely for a longer bottom phase before the next bull run.

Major institutions are also revising their targets downward. Citigroup has lowered its 12-month forecast to $112,000, while Standard Chartered has reduced its year-end target from $150,000 to $100,000. These moves converge with Brandt’s cautious reading of the market.

Our view is as follows: Brandt’s thesis deserves to be integrated into any medium-term crypto investment plan. If the scenario is confirmed, the months from July to October 2026 could offer significantly more advantageous entry points than current levels. The $40,000-$50,000 zone would represent a historic accumulation territory, provided the cyclical thesis remains intact.

For those looking to gain exposure right now, our guide on how to buy Bitcoin and our comparison of the best exchanges will help you proceed methodically. The BTC price predictions will be updated based on how the market structure evolves in the coming weeks.

Sources:

• PeterLBrandt on X
• CryptoQuant
• Tradingview

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