Bitcoin closes the quarter with an RSI configuration analysts are calling “interesting,” drawing comparisons between the current $60,000 level and the $30,000 floor seen during the 2022 bear market. A rare divergence signal on the Q2 and June close could define BTC’s trajectory all the way through 2026.
RSI Divergence: The Signal That Echoes 2022
Bitcoin’s RSI (Relative Strength Index) is printing a notable divergence on higher timeframes at the close of the second quarter. Analysts point out that this setup is structurally similar to what was observed around $30,000 in 2022 — a level that marked the bottom of the bearish cycle before institutional buyers gradually returned to the market.
This type of RSI divergence occurring simultaneously on a monthly and quarterly close is historically rare. It suggests that selling pressure is fading even as a dominant bearish sentiment persists across spot markets. On TradingView, Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is hovering in a neutral zone, yet to break above the 60 threshold that would signal a genuine bull run gaining momentum.
The comparison with 2022 is as much editorial as it is technical: at the time, the retracement from the ATH exceeded 75% before the RSI signaled bearish exhaustion. Today, the market structure is different — spot Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing a portion of the selling pressure — but the signal remains one to watch closely.
Support and Resistance: The Critical Levels to Watch
From a technical standpoint, the $60,000 level stands out as the central pivot zone in this analysis. This threshold represents both a major psychological support and a former resistance that was flipped into a floor following the breakout in early 2024. A close back below this zone would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario and open the door to a deeper correction toward the $52,000–$54,000 range.
To the upside, immediate resistance sits in the area of the previous ATH, with a significant technical level that bulls will need to clear in order to fuel a sustained rally. The MACD on the weekly chart remains in compression territory, with no confirmed bullish crossover signal at this stage — which limits conviction around an imminent breakout.
On-chain data from CryptoQuant shows that exchange inflows remain moderate, reducing immediate selling pressure. This context reinforces the case for a consolidation phase rather than a clean capitulation below $60,000.
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenario: What Can We Expect for 2026?
Bullish scenario: if the RSI confirms its positive divergence on the June monthly close and BTC holds $60,000 as support, the conditions would be in place for a new structural rally. Previous post-halving cycles suggest that the acceleration phase typically kicks in 12 to 18 months after the event — pointing to a 2025–2026 window as a credible timeframe for a potential new ATH.
Bearish scenario: a weekly close below $60,000 with the RSI dropping back under 40 would reactivate the risk of an extended correction. In that case, the support zones at $52,000 and then $45,000 would become the primary targets for sellers, with a risk of returning to a bearish structure similar to mid-2022.
Market Verdict: 2026 in Sight, But Confirmation Is Still Pending
The RSI signal printed on the Q2/June close is objectively significant — but on its own, it does not constitute a confirmed entry signal. Traders should wait for validation on the June monthly close and monitor BTC’s behavior around $60,000 over the coming weeks.
If the structure holds and the MACD begins a bullish crossover on the weekly, the next major price target sits beyond the previous ATH, with 2026 as a credible horizon for an expansion cycle. If not, caution remains warranted: a retracement toward $52,000 would represent a reassessment opportunity, not a structural catastrophe.
