Bitcoin appears to be mirroring a familiar scenario, with technical, on-chain, and macro indicators resembling early 2021 before a major bull run. Institutional investors are returning, liquidity is picking up, and whales are accumulating once more. Could we be on the brink of an explosive rebound?
Analysis of Bitcoin trading volumes reveals an interesting paradox. Spot volumes have formed increasingly modest peaks over the past twelve months. This relative weakness typically reflects a lack of commitment from spot buyers, often signaling institutional or retail hesitation.
In contrast, futures markets maintain robust dynamics. Bitcoin futures volumes remain solid, indicating that professional traders are maintaining their speculative positions despite ambient volatility. This divergence between spot and futures is far from insignificant.
Historically, such a configuration can signal two scenarios. Either players positioned in futures are anticipating a strong directional move and hedging accordingly, or they’re taking advantage of arbitrage opportunities between the two markets, creating latent pressure that can catalyze a breakout once spot regains momentum.
The sustained presence of futures volumes suggests that crypto market makers and hedge funds remain active. They haven’t left the field, unlike during prolonged bear market phases where even derivatives dry up.
The parallel with 2021 deserves particular attention. At the time, supply in profit had also experienced a marked decline after the May correction, falling from over 90% to around 50-60% before violently rebounding upward toward November.
Long-term holders, those famous holders who have been accumulating for cycles, have generally shown little reaction to recent volatility. On-chain data shows that old addresses continue to accumulate or maintain their positions. This typical strong hands behavior creates a natural support floor.
Current technical support zones are located around key psychological levels, while immediate resistance remains marked by medium-term moving averages. A clean break through these resistance levels, accompanied by renewed spot volumes, could trigger a regime change. Indicators like the RSI and MACD are beginning to show signs of bullish divergence on daily timeframes, suggesting that exhaustion of selling pressure may be on the horizon.
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