Bitcoin appears to be indecisive, caught between persistent selling pressure and turning green on technical signals. A true bull run never starts randomly: liquidity, sentiment, key levels, and whale behaviour must align. Are we nearing the next takeoff... or still far from ideal conditions?
Analyst Darkfost highlights a critical, often overlooked indicator: stablecoin inflows to exchange platforms. The data reveals a spectacular drop, falling from $158 billion in August to just $76 billion today. This 50% contraction in just a few months illustrates a progressive drying up of liquidity available to buy Bitcoin.
The 90-day moving average confirms this downtrend, sliding from $130 billion to $118 billion. This phenomenon explains why Bitcoin is struggling to absorb the current selling pressure. Without fresh capital entering the market, each rebound attempt relies more on a temporary reduction in selling than on genuine renewed buying demand.
When discussing liquidity in the crypto ecosystem, stablecoins represent the primary fuel. They enable investors to quickly enter Bitcoin positions without going through the traditional banking system. Their scarcity therefore constitutes a major warning signal for bulls hoping for a trend reversal.
The current market paradox deserves particular attention. Stablecoin issuers continue to mint new tokens. The market capitalization of Tether (USDT) and Circle’s USDC even reached new all-time highs this month. At first glance, this supply expansion should support demand for Bitcoin.
However, these stablecoin flows are predominantly directed toward other destinations. A significant portion now fuels cross-border payments, a fast-growing sector where stablecoins are gaining ground against traditional systems. The IMF notably observes that Asia dominates in stablecoin activity volume, surpassing North America, while Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America stand out proportionally to their GDP.
The other issue lies in the distribution of flows between platforms. A significant portion of inflows heads to derivatives exchanges rather than the spot market. This configuration favors leveraged speculative trading at the expense of direct Bitcoin purchases, thus limiting the impact on the spot price. For a bullish trend to establish itself sustainably, the market needs fresh liquidity directed specifically toward spot platforms, accompanied by more constructive market sentiment. As long as investor reluctance persists, capital rotation toward BTC will remain constrained.
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