The crypto market is on edge : a record-breaking $23 billion options expiry for Bitcoin and Ethereum is set for Friday, 26th September 2025. With this massive sum in play, the looming question : is the largest crash imminent ? Let's delve into the data and scenarios to forecast the impact.
This Thursday, the crypto sphere’s attention turns to a critical deadline : the expiration of $23 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options, scheduled for tomorrow, Friday.
This exceptional volume far exceeds previous records, such as the $8.05 billion in April 2025 or $6 billion in September 2024. With a “max pain” level estimated between $107,000 and $110,000 for BTC, this expiration could redefine price dynamics, fueling speculation about a major crash. But is this really the most likely scenario ? Let’s analyze the facts.
“Max pain” – the price level where the greatest number of options expire worthless, maximizing losses for holders – is a key indicator.
Indeed, at $110,000-107,000 for BTC (currently at $112,600) and about $3,800-3,900 for ETH (currently $4,192), this equilibrium point could force a correction if market makers adjust their positions.
Historically, massive expirations amplify volatility. In April 2025, the $8.05 billion in BTC/ETH options triggered a 5% swing on BTC (from $92,000 to $87,000), liquidating $300 million in long positions, according to CryptoQuant.
With $23 billion – three times more – the impact could be exponential. On-chain data shows 60,000 BTC withdrawn from exchanges recently, signaling accumulation by whales, but also tension : the open interest in derivatives has climbed from $38 to $39 billion post-liquidations, with 60% of vulnerable long positions. If these positions face mass liquidation around the max pain level, a crash of 10-15% (to $95,000 for BTC, $3,200 for ETH) is plausible.
However, not all signs point to a collapse. The $23 billion includes bullish strikes up to $110,000 for BTC and $4,500 for ETH, reflecting long-term bullish sentiment.
BTC ETF inflows ($700 million this week) and institutional demand via Coinbase Premium support potential absorption. On X, @MutantDogsYC even predicts an imminent target of $115,000, suggesting the market might defy max pain. Scenarios vary : a crash if shorts dominate, or consolidation if bulls absorb liquidations.
A 10% crash for BTC, but especially a 30% drop for ETH to $2,800 would be a severe blow to the market. With $23 billion in options, liquidations could reach $2-3 billion, amplified by a domino effect on margins (CME Group). However, current liquidity ($4.2 trillion crypto market cap) and reserves from players like Tether (110 billion USDT) could cushion the shock.
In summary, if max pain takes effect, BTC could test $105,000, ETH $2,300. A post-expiration bounce toward $115,000 (BTC) and $4,200 (ETH) is possible if bulls regain control. For the long term, BTC at $150,000 and ETH at $5,000 remain probable, despite the turbulence.
In conclusion, the $23 billion in options does not guarantee the “biggest crash ever,” but a violent movement of 10-15% is likely on Friday for altcoins.
Buying with DCA during the next few days may prove to be the best strategy before entering October, historically the most profitable month for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Here are the steps for a classic spot purchase on Bitget, suitable for beginners, without needing advanced trading knowledge :
1- Create a Bitget account : Visit the Bitget website or download the app. Register with your email or phone number, then complete KYC verification (ID document, 5-10 minutes). This is mandatory for deposits >€1,000 and ensures European compliance.
2- Deposit funds :
3- Buy BTC or ETH :
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
DISCLAIMER
This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Trading cryptocurrencies involves risks, and it is important not to invest more than you can afford to lose.
InvestX is not responsible for the quality of the products or services presented on this page and cannot be held liable, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss caused by the use of any product or service featured in this article. Investments in crypto assets are inherently risky; readers should conduct their own research before taking any action and invest only within their financial means. This article does not constitute investment advice.
Risk Warning : Trading financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies carries a high level of risk, including the possibility of losing all or part of your investment. It may not be suitable for all investors. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile and can be influenced by external factors such as financial, regulatory, or political events. Margin trading increases financial risks.
CFDs (Contracts for Difference) are complex instruments with a high risk of rapid capital loss due to leverage. Between 74% and 89% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs. You should assess whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Before engaging in financial or cryptocurrency trading, you must be fully informed about the associated risks and fees, carefully evaluate your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance, and seek professional advice if needed. InvestX.fr and the InvestX application may provide general market commentary, which does not constitute investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. Please consult an independent financial advisor for any investment-related questions. InvestX.fr disclaims any liability for errors, misinvestments, inaccuracies, or omissions and does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information, texts, graphics, links, or other materials provided.
Some of the partners featured on this site may not be regulated in your country. It is your responsibility to verify the compliance of these services with local regulations before using them.
