Goldman Sachs: 3 Reasons Why $700 Billion in IPOs Won’t Flood the Stock Market

Fears of a wave of new equity issuances have been haunting investors for months. Goldman Sachs is pushing back against this prevailing sentiment, delivering a three-point analysis aimed at putting those concerns to rest.

Ben Snider, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, argues that this anxiety has surpassed even concerns around AI or the macro environment — and that it is, nonetheless, unfounded. Here is why.

$700 Billion in IPOs: A Record Figure, But a Relative One

Goldman Sachs is forecasting approximately $700 billion in equity issuances in 2025, combining IPOs and follow-on offerings. In absolute terms, that figure represents an all-time record. Yet Ben Snider is quick to put it in perspective: measured against the total market capitalization of U.S. equities, that amount accounts for roughly just 1% of the market.

That ratio is not only below the long-term historical average, it also aligns with levels seen between 2015 and 2019 — a period widely regarded as stable and healthy for markets. In other words, the overall pie has grown so large that the slice taken by new issuances remains proportionally modest.

Snider also notes that the number of transactions remains within historical norms, even if their individual size is larger. It is a handful of mega-IPOs inflating the total, not an explosion in the volume of deals coming to market.

Share Buybacks Absorb the Pressure Before Investors Even Have To

The third argument from Goldman Sachs may be the most structurally significant: corporate demand for equities remains massively greater than supply. U.S. companies are expected to surpass $1 trillion in share buybacks in 2025, marking a record level.

This mechanism is often underestimated in market flow analysis. Before mutual funds, hedge funds, or retail investors are required to absorb a single new issuance, companies themselves are buying back their own shares at a pace that far exceeds the volume of new stock being brought to market. The supply/demand balance therefore remains structurally favorable.

For crypto investors accustomed to monitoring on-chain flows and burn mechanisms, the logic will feel familiar: when supply destruction outpaces supply creation, selling pressure eases mechanically. Buybacks play an analogous role in traditional markets.

What This Means for Broader Market Sentiment

The Goldman Sachs analysis comes at a time when market sentiment remains fragile across risk assets, crypto included. The correlation between equity markets and cryptocurrencies has strengthened in recent years, particularly during periods of liquidity stress. A stabilization in equities therefore mechanically reduces pressure on digital assets as well.

If IPOs are not draining available liquidity to the extent some feared, that leaves more floating capital potentially rotating into alternative asset classes — including Bitcoin and altcoins. The scenario of a global liquidity squeeze driven by new equity issuances appears to have been dismissed by one of Wall Street’s most influential players.

Whether the market itself will validate this thesis over the coming quarters remains to be seen — particularly if macro conditions deteriorate or long-term yields resume their climb.