Bearish Pressure Testing Support Zones
Bitcoin has experienced a recent decline testing the patience of long-term holders and the strength of key support zones. According to Glassnode’s basic quantile cost model, the $103,700 level marks the distribution of available supply at 0.95, meaning that 95% of the circulating BTC has been acquired at a price lower than this level. The next line of defense is at $95,600, the 0.85 distribution mark.
Even though long-term holders are exerting downward pressure, history suggests that June typically brings a respite for Bitcoin. With a median monthly return of +2.58%, the sixth month has been characterized by modest yet consistent strength for this asset. So, if macroeconomic conditions remain favourable and buyer confidence returns, the recent corrections could be short-lived.
Furthermore, Bitcoin continues to exhibit a remarkable correlation with M2 money supply. According to Killa, this correction was the best thing that could have happened to Bitcoin. In fact, BTC aggressively recovered liquidity from the bottoms of the last 3 weekly candles.
Critical Juncture for Bitcoin
The next move depends on buyer activity – if demand persists, Bitcoin could follow its seasonal trend, but if buyers hesitate, a deeper bearish setup may unfold. By stabilizing sentiment and alleviating selling pressure, the typical resilience of June could once again act as a launchpad for a new bullish momentum in the second half of the year.
In this context, it is noteworthy that RHODL has re-entered the bull run zone, confirming that demand is slowly returning.
According to trader Killa, June is expected to be bullish, targeting $116 to $120,000 as next objectives. Conversely, he highlights a CME gap at $104,500 that could be reached in the short term.
Indeed, Bitcoin must maintain its bullish momentum. If it drops below the trendline and $104,900 and revisits its low at $101,000, BTC could extend its decline.
