On-chain adoption contradicts the bearish sentiment
The PEPE network has captured over 1,500 new addresses in just two weeks, bringing its total to more than 553,446 holders. This organic network growth contrasts sharply with the apparent cooling of the meme coin sector. The token is currently trading around $0.0000038, a level that accumulators consider attractive ahead of the next bull cycle. The divergence between a stagnant price and growing wallet numbers is a classic on-chain precursor to a major directional move. Blockchain data tells a very different story from what the surface level charts suggest.
Shiba Inu is displaying a similar dynamic with 1.585 million users now holding the token. This steady increase in holders is part of an underlying trend that goes beyond mere short-term speculation. With its price hovering around $0.0000057, SHIB maintains a loyal investor base despite the volatility of the crypto market. The confidence of long-term holders is clearly visible in on-chain data where outflows to exchanges remain limited. This retention behavior is characteristic of the silent accumulation phases that typically precede explosive rallies.
The simultaneous growth across two major meme coins is no coincidence. It suggests a renewed interest in this specific segment of the Web3 market which often moves ahead of retail investors. The fear and greed index sitting in neutral territory provides the perfect backdrop for this type of discreet accumulation. Crypto whales are taking advantage of the general indifference to build their positions before mainstream media attention returns. The underlying crypto trend remains highly favorable for assets with strong communities over a medium-term horizon.
Is whale concentration setting the stage for a supply shock?
Token distribution data reveals massive concentration. Crypto whales control nearly 90% of the market capitalization for PEPE and 95% of the supply for SHIB. This extreme concentration is a structural feature of meme coins that significantly amplifies price movements in both directions. When these large wallets decide to withdraw their supply from exchanges, available liquidity mechanically collapses. A supply shock of this magnitude can propel prices exponentially within a matter of hours.
This dynamic creates a double-edged sword for retail investors. On one hand, whale concentration guarantees explosive price reactivity to the slightest significant capital inflow. On the other hand, it exposes smaller holders to the risk of a coordinated dump if large players decide to take profits simultaneously. The pump and dump concept remains a well-documented reality within this sector. Strict risk management is absolutely non-negotiable for anyone looking to invest in crypto through these specific assets.
The fundamental analysis of PEPE and SHIB must account for this structural reality. These tokens do not rely on protocol revenues or value-generating smart contracts like those found in DeFi. Their valuation is essentially based on community strength and the ability to generate viral narratives. Therefore, the growth in the number of holders is the most relevant fundamental indicator for these assets. A growing community translates to a resilient narrative.
Technical analysis: Which levels to watch for PEPE and SHIB?
The technical analysis for PEPE identifies immediate resistance as the key hurdle to clear in order to trigger a bullish breakout toward its ATH. The daily RSI is repositioning toward the median zone following an oversold phase, offering significant room for upward movement. The MACD is showing signs of bullish convergence on intermediate timeframes. The Bollinger Bands are tightening around the current price which is a classic signal of an imminent volatility explosion. Trading volume must absolutely accompany any breakout attempt to avoid a fakeout.
For SHIB, holding above the key support/resistance level is the absolute prerequisite for a credible technical bounce. Fibonacci retracement levels place the next significant resistance at +25% above current prices. The open interest on SHIB futures remains stable without any signs of excessive speculative accumulation. This sobriety in the derivatives market is paradoxically reassuring as it indicates that the potential move does not rely on fragile leverage. Traders engaged in swing trading are placing their stops below weekly supports to limit their market exposure.
The CVD of both assets will be the critical indicator to monitor over the coming days. A bullish reversal in the Cumulative Volume Delta would confirm that buyers are regaining control of net flows. Without this signal, any technical bounce remains highly suspect and could potentially turn into a bull trap. Elliott Waves suggest that both assets are nearing the end of their corrective phases and could soon begin a new impulsive wave. However, confirming this scenario requires a convincing weekly close above the current resistance levels.
Can PEPE and SHIB target new ATHs this cycle?
The bullish scenario for PEPE and SHIB relies on a combination of favorable factors. The organic growth in the number of holders provides a solid fundamental foundation. If crypto trading volumes follow the on-chain accumulation, an explosive rally toward their respective ATHs is mathematically possible. The 2025 crypto bull run has not yet fully benefited the meme coin sector, creating a performance lag that could be closed very quickly. A Bitcoin recovery above the $80,000 mark would serve as the ideal macroeconomic catalyst.
Nevertheless, the bearish scenario remains entirely credible. An exhaustion of retail demand combined with coordinated profit-taking by whales would drive prices back down to lower liquidity zones. The short-term bear market structure will persist as long as technical resistances are not broken with strong volume. Holders exposed through leverage would be the first casualties of such a market purge. Cascading liquidations remain the primary risk for these relatively low-cap assets.
For investors looking to build a position, fractional accumulation remains the most appropriate strategy. Spreading entry points across multiple price levels helps smooth out the average cost without taking on timing risks with such volatile assets. Choosing to HODL PEPE and SHIB is a conviction measured in market cycles rather than weeks. The price prediction for these assets heading into Q4 2025 remains heavily dependent on the overall health of the market and the return of retail speculative appetite.
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