Polymarket trader turns $1000 into $2 Million: unveiling the winning strategy
The story of "RN1," an anonymous trader on Polymarket, is becoming legendary. Through analysis of over 2,000 high-frequency trades, a researcher uncovered how this trader amassed a $1.9 million profit. The most shocking revelation? Despite trading millions, RN1 never closed a single position. Using the strategy dubbed "The Holy Trinity Farming," this approach relies on pure mathematics and market microstructure exploitation.
Translated on December 23, 2025 at 14:14 by Simon Dumoulin
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The Polymarket “Synthetic Sell” Strategy: Never Pay Selling Fees
The first key to RN1’s strategy is to never sell. While most traders manage their risk by closing their positions, RN1 uses a “synthetic sell” technique. Instead of selling his “Manchester United will win” position, he simply buys a “Manchester United will lose” or “Draw” position.
By doing this, he creates a neutral position without ever paying the “taker” fees associated with selling in an illiquid order book. Risk is no longer tracked in terms of PnL (Profit and Loss), but in “Net Delta”: as long as the sum of his positions (YES and NO) across correlated markets remains close to zero, he’s protected, even with massive positions on both sides.
Microstructure Arbitrage: Buying a Dollar for 79 Cents
The core of RN1’s performance lies in his ability to spot pricing errors. In the Manchester United vs. Bournemouth match example, the market was overly confident in a Man Utd victory, pushing the price of “NO” (Man Utd doesn’t win) to $0.21.
RN1 instantly calculated that the fair value of this contract, based on the prices of the “Draw” and “Bournemouth wins” markets, was actually $0.28. He therefore bought massively an asset worth $0.28 for only $0.21, securing a 33% statistical edge. He didn’t try to predict the match, he simply exploited a blatant mathematical inefficiency.
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Another counterintuitive technique is “Trash Farming.” At the end of a match, RN1 aggressively buys contracts that are almost certain to lose, at prices of $0.01 or $0.03. Why? For the volume.
Buying $10 worth of contracts at $0.01 generates $1,000 in notional trading volume. If the platform offers volume-based rewards (points, airdrops, rebates), the gains from these incentives can far exceed the $10 loss. The profit doesn’t come from the bet, but from farming the platform’s rewards.
The Lesson: Don’t Beat the Market, Balance It
RN1’s strategy is a masterclass in quantitative trading. He doesn’t try to predict the future, he exploits inefficiencies in the present. By acting as a rebalancing force, he provides liquidity when the market becomes irrational and gets paid for it. His success isn’t luck, it’s mathematical certainty. He doesn’t beat the market, he serves it and profits from it.
Charles Ledoux is a Bitcoin and blockchain technology specialist. A graduate of the Crypto Academy, he has been a Bitcoin miner for over a year. He has written numerous masterclasses to educate newcomers to the industry and has authored over 2,000 articles on cryptocurrency. Now, he aims to share his passion for crypto through his articles for InvestX.
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