The Most Powerful Technical Signal Right Now
The Bitcoin bullish market seems to be strengthening, supported by a key crossing of the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) technical indicator on weekly scales. This type of signal is rarely seen and is perceived by the crypto community as a precursor of new sustained increases. The last time such a crossing occurred was in October 2024 – just before a price surge.
“This is probably the most powerful bullish signal that the Bitcoin market can offer right now,” summarized the trader known under the pseudonym Moustache. Graphically, this signal is accompanied by increased volatility in the markets, mainly related to international macroeconomic news and trade tensions between the US and China.
Despite reaching a high of $105,706 on Bitstamp on Monday, the price failed to close above the technical threshold of $104,500, identified by analysts as a pivotal level to reconnect with a “price discovery” phase. Trader Rekt Capital emphasizes that to trigger a new uptrend, the RSI (Relative Strength Index) will need to validate a bullish divergence with increasingly higher lows, even at lower prices.
This resistance could temporarily slow down the price rise, but Bitcoin nevertheless remains in a consolidation zone with high potential. The next few days are crucial to confirm – or not – entry into a new phase of price discovery.
US Macro Data Under Close Surveillance
Traders should keep a close eye on US macroeconomic indicators this week, especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). These data directly influence the interest rate policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), a key player in the appetite for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Furthermore, news about the resumption of trade negotiations between the US and China continues to shake the crypto markets. Any potential easing could serve as an additional catalyst for BTC, seen as a safe haven asset in periods of global economic instability.
Despite the positive news regarding relations with China, Bitcoin remains stuck below $106,000. A negative sign according to top Binance trader Alphawifhat:
The best possible trade deal. Everyone is delighted, but Bitcoin isn’t rising. Why? Massive capital flows are being injected into Bitcoin ETFs, with macroeconomic uncertainty, and the trend is reversing.
This is not good news for Bitcoin, as US stocks become more attractive. That’s why the Nasdaq surged 4%, but Bitcoin is stagnant. Expect Bitcoin to plateau locally, then correct before rising back to its all-time high. Still expecting a rise until August, after some consolidation.
A Healthy Dynamics Despite All-Time Highs for Bitcoin
Surprisingly, despite the record levels, public interest remains moderate. Google Trends data shows that searches for “Bitcoin” are at their lowest level in five years. The Fear and Greed Index stood at 70/100 on May 12, a level described as “moderate greed,” but lower than the 72/100 recorded at the end of April.
This mismatch can be interpreted as a positive sign by professionals, who see the possibility of a more organic and less speculative market growth.
Bitcoin continues to trade around its yearly highs, in a complex macroeconomic context. Between promising technical signals, institutional investors’ caution, and the detachment of the general public, the market displays an atypical yet potentially healthy dynamic.
For investors, this week could offer interesting opportunities provided they monitor economic data and technical movements closely. Balancing the temptation of a new phase of price discovery with caution imposed by the geopolitical and monetary context, prudence remains essential.
